Duke Johnson is flying up ADP charts and may sail past Marlon Mack– at some point- who himself is on the way down ADP charts. Which is the better choice for your fantasy football team in 2019?
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Should You Draft Duke Johnson or Marlon Mack in Fantasy Football
Johnson and Mack are two of the players most affected by the significant happenings of this past weekend. In a historic moment, Andrew Luck abruptly announced his retirement. Gone with Luck are hopes of an elite Indianapolis Colts offense in 2019. Also gone with Luck is some of Mack’s scoring upside.
In the second bit of tragic news over the weekend, Lamar Miller tore his ACL in a meaningless preseason game and will be out for the season. Miller being lost for the season leaves Johnson as the top running back in Houston. Johnson’s ADP is up to 65th overall- and climbing. However, the Texans will likely acquire another veteran running back to either compete with or complement Johnson this season.
So who will have a better season for their fantasy investors, Mack or Johnson? [ADP courtesy of Fantasy Football Calculator]
The Case for Duke Johnson
Johnson is 5’ 9” tall and 210 pounds. He has excellent hands and has mostly been used as a pass-catching back to this point in his career. Johnson- now of the Houston Texans-is going into his fifth season. His outlook for fantasy has never been higher.
Duke fits right into Texans head coach Bill O’Brien’s scheme. O’Brien is formerly of the New England Patriots. He once used players like Danny Woodhead and Shane Vereen to their fullest potential. Johnson fits the mold, of the running backs that O’Brien prefers.
Duke Johnson, who wanted more playing time in Cleveland, will be the Texans' starting RB. He's going to get all the playing time he can handle.
— John McClain (@McClain_on_NFL) August 25, 2019
So how far can Johnson go under O’Brien and the Texans? Johnson, after all, is built and has a similar skill-set to that of Miller. When O’Brien first became the head coach of the Texans, he quickly acquired Miller from the Miami Dolphins.
At that point in Miller’s career, he had filled a similar role for the Dolphins to the role Johnson had played for the Cleveland Browns. Miller, too, was considered by many to be no more than a scat-back. However, the Texans used him as more of a three-down back. Johnson could see similar usage.
The Case for Marlon Mack
Mack is 5’ 11” tall and 213 pounds. He is a natural runner of the football. Mack has great burst and speed but does lack power. Mack is a threat to break a long run on any carry. However, he’s proven less adept at catching passes- he only caught 17 passes in 12 games last season. I expect he will improve some as pass-catcher in 2019.
Luck’s retirement will certainly have an affect on Mack. It has already effected his ADP, which has slid to 46th overall. However, Mack might be one few players on the Colts offense who could actually benefit from Luck leaving the team. Hear me out—
Luck retiring should force the Colts to focus more on their run-game. The new centerpiece of the offense should be Mack. The Colts strength along their offensive line is inside, so they should get behind those big men and pound the ball. Doing so will help protect Jacoby Brissett, who has yet to prove himself as a full-time starting quarterback in the NFL. [Stats and measurables found at Pro Football Reference]
Draft Marlon Mack over Duke Johnson
While Johnson has a better outlook this season than in years past, Mack’s upside is just better. The offensive line in Indy ranks much higher than the Texans, 5th vs. 31st according to Pro Football Focus. Mack’s job also appears more secure long-term.
In standard leagues, it’s not even close. Mack has the opportunity at volume and red zone work whereas Johnson has the potential to be more of an asset in PPR leagues. Johnson’s receiving chops might give him a leg up in that format bringing him closer in value to Mack.
While questions surround the Indy QB situation, the backfield workhorse is clear: Marlon Mack is the man. pic.twitter.com/8RkqC4xIWc
— Field Yates (@FieldYates) August 20, 2019
I would not fault you if you drafted Johnson over Mack in a full PPR league. Johnson should fair well in that scoring format. However, I would still take Mack.
Any day now the Texans could sign another running back to compete with Johnson and he could lose value. I’ll take Mack and watch him work behind some of the talented maulers of the Colts offensive line.
