Four weeks of NFL action are in the books, and Vegas just released their NFL Week 5 spreads. Let’s take a dive into each matchup, break down the games, and decide which side to bet on.
NFL Week 5 Spreads, Betting Lines, and Game Picks
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (EVEN)
In a vacuum, these teams are evenly matched. The Los Angeles Rams clearly aren’t the same team they were last year, while the Seattle Seahawks are finally putting the game in Russell Wilson’s hands. The Rams have the better defense, but Seattle has the better offense when Brian Schottenheimer lets Russell Wilson air it out.
The ultimate tiebreaker here is the Rams’ presumed fatigue from Week 4’s action. Jared Goff threw 68 passes, and the offense ran 79 plays overall. The Rams are going to be exhausted and beaten up after this matchup, and playing on Thursday night means that they’ll have less time to recover than normal. Don’t be surprised if the Rams come out of the gate looking sluggish.
Pick: Seahawks win
New York Jets at Philadelphia Eagles (-14)
Normally lines like this are a trap, but the Eagles should be able to beat it. Even with a subpar secondary, the Eagles still have one of the most talented rosters in the league. Carson Wentz has quietly played like a top-10 quarterback, and the offense should be back at full strength for this matchup.
The same cannot be said for the Jets. As of this posting, it’s unclear as to whether Sam Darnold is going to make his return to the field for Week 5’s action. If he does, he’s going to be incredibly rusty and nowhere near full strength. If he doesn’t, that means one more week of Luke Falk. Either way, the Eagles defense should be able to exploit this matchup and come away with an easy victory.
Pick: Eagles win, cover spread
Jacksonville Jaguars at Carolina Panthers (-3.5)
This is a hard game to pick. On the one hand, Gardner Minshew continues to improve on a weekly basis. The sixth-round rookie isn’t a top-five passer by any means, but he’s clearly an NFL-caliber player. He’s surrounded by a serviceable cast of offensive weapons and his defense has top-10 potential.
On the other hand, 2018 undrafted free agent Kyle Allen is playing pretty well in his own right. While he took a step back against Houston, Allen still performed well under the circumstances and should keep this team competitive. This game might come down to the availability of Jalen Ramsey. For now, it’s hard to imagine Jacksonville trading him away when they’re in the thick of the division race. Assuming Ramsey plays, the Jaguars should come away with the win.
Pick: Jaguars win, cover spread
Minnesota Vikings (-4.5) at New York Giants
Daniel Jones makes the Giants a more competitive team, but he’s not ready to take down the Minnesota Vikings. While there is some internal turmoil over the quarterback position, it’s safe to say that the defense and running game should be able to win the day here. Jones made a few rookie mistakes against a subpar Washington Redskins defense, so the Vikings should get a turnover or two. On top of that, the Giants have one of the worst secondaries in the league and won’t be able to match up against Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs.
Pick: Vikings win, cover spread
Atlanta Falcons at Houston Texans (-5)
The Atlanta Falcons simply cannot get out of their own way. Matt Ryan is a good quarterback, but he’s not capable of overcoming a nonexistent defense and running game. The Falcons are going to score more in Week 5 than they did in Week 4, but it won’t be enough to overcome the spread. So far this season, Deshaun Watson has struggled against good defense and dominated bad ones. The Falcons have a bad defense, so Watson and company should be able to score at will.
Pick: Texans win, cover spread
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-5.5)
The New Orleans Saints are 2-0 without Drew Brees, but neither victory has been that impressive. In Week 3, the Saints needed a punt return and a Chris Carson fumble to build an early lead. In Week 4, they only put up 12 against the Dallas Cowboys. A win is a win, but it’s hard to remain successful in today’s pass-happy NFL by relying on special teams and defense alone. Teddy Bridgewater hasn’t looked good in his return to action, and the defense can’t hide his shortcomings forever.
Jameis Winston has the ability to simultaneously look like the best and worst quarterback on a throw-for-throw basis. While he tends to lean on the negative side, the former first-overall pick is in the midst of a two-game hot streak. If he can keep this momentum going, then the Buccaneers should pull off the upset.
Pick: Buccaneers win, cover spread
Buffalo Bills at Tennessee Titans (EVEN)
The Buffalo Bills are the superior roster, but Josh Allen is still in concussion protocol. The former first-round pick might not play in Week 5, leaving Matt Barkley as the presumed starter in place of Allen. Barkley isn’t as good as Allen, but Buffalo can win without their quarterback. The Bills have a stifling defense which should be able to stop Marcus Mariota and Tennessee’s underwhelming offense. As long as Barkley doesn’t make any mistakes, the Bills should come away with the win.
Pick: Bills win
Arizona Cardinals at Cincinnati Bengals (-4.5)
The Arizona Cardinals have yet to play with the lead, and that shouldn’t change in Week 5. The Cincinnati Bengals are far from perfect, but they’re better than this talent-barren roster. The Cardinals have no answer for Tyler Boyd and John Ross, and Kyler Murray isn’t ready to overcome a defense which cannot get any stops.
Pick: Bengals win, cover spread
New England Patriots (-16) at Washington Redskins
Hell hath no fury like a pissed off Tom Brady. While New England earned the win in Week 4, Brady had one of the worst games of his storied career. Historically, whenever Brady has a bad week, he takes out his anger on his next opponent. It’s hard to imagine Brady and the Patriots taking their foot off the gas at any point in this game, and the talent disparity between these two rosters is enormous. Whether it’s Dwayne Haskins, Colt McCoy, or Case Keenum, nobody is going to make this game close.
Pick: Patriots win, cover spread
Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers
How is this spread so close? Even after two disappointing weeks, it’s safe to say that the Baltimore Ravens are the vastly superior roster. This one’s free money.
Pick: Ravens win, cover spread
Chicago Bears (-5.5) at Oakland Raiders
This spread would be bigger if Mitchell Trubisky were still in the lineup. Losing your starting quarterback hurts, but the Bears are in position to remain competitive without Trubisky. Chase Daniel is an experienced backup who actually possesses more rhythm and timing than Trubisky. In some ways, this could be an upgrade. Even with the quarterback change, the Bears defense is still one of the NFL’s elite unit. The Bears haven’t regressed at all from 2018, and Khalil Mack is going up against his former team. Good luck, Derek Carr. You’re going to need it.
Pick: Bears win, cover spread
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5)
The Denver Broncos are bad, but they’re not as bad as their 0-4 record would indicate. Denver lost two of their games on last-second field goals and could easily be 2-2 with a bit of luck. Joe Flacco isn’t good, but he’s not playing at an atrocious level. When factoring in the seemingly endless barrage of injuries to the Los Angeles Chargers, it’s easy to see the Broncos keeping this one close. They probably won’t win, but it should go down to the wire.
Pick: Chargers win, fail to cover spread
Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys (-4.5)
Aaron Rodgers looked like his old self in Week 4, but he faces a considerably tougher task in Week 5. The Dallas Cowboys defense is one of the best and should pose a larger challenge than the Philadelphia Eagles. Davante Adams might not play in this one, and he won’t be full strength even if he does suit up. First-year offensive coordinator Kellen Moore had a rough day against the New Orleans Saints, but he should learn from his mistakes and have a better plan for the Packers.
Pick: Cowboys win, cover spread
Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5)
Patrick Mahomes had perhaps the worst day of his career in Week 4 and still managed to drop 34 points against a stout Detroit Lions defense. The Colts simply don’t have the firepower to keep up with this explosive attack, especially if T.Y. Hilton misses another week.
Pick: Chiefs win, cover spread
Cleveland Browns at San Francisco 49ers (-4)
The San Francisco 49ers might be one of the worst 3-0 teams in recent memory. This team didn’t inspire too much confidence in any of their wins and still have holes across the roster. While the defense is improved from a season ago, Jimmy Garoppolo still doesn’t look comfortable under center. Maybe the bye week can fix that, but I’m skeptical. On the other sideline, Baker Mayfield and the Cleveland Browns finally played up to their potential against a talented Baltimore Ravens team in Week 4. Look for them to carry that momentum into Week 5 and pull off the upset.
Pick: Browns win, cover spread
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