Nine weeks on NFL action are in the books, and Vegas just released their NFL Week 10 spreads. Let’s take a dive into each matchup, break down the games, and decide which side to bet on.
NFL Week 10 Spreads, Betting Lines, Over/Under, and Game Picks
Los Angeles Chargers (-1) at Oakland Raiders
The Los Angeles Chargers finally played up to their talent in Week 9’s blowout win over Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers. Philip Rivers is still one of the better quarterbacks in the game, the defense is starting to round into form and should only get better as the unit starts getting healthy. On the other side of the ball, the Oakland Raiders are actually playing some competitive football thanks to Derek Carr and Jon Gruden. This one should be a close battle, but look for Oakland to win this one by the narrowest of margins.
Pick: Raiders win
Over/Under: 48 [Pick: Over]
New York Giants (-2) at New York Jets
Even with a healthy Sam Darnold, the New York Jets are a walking disaster. Adam Gase is a bad coach, and he can no longer hide his ineptitude under the bright lights of New York. Outside of that one game against Dallas, the Jets simply haven’t looked like a complete, cohesive team. The defense is a mess, and Darnold isn’t capable of carrying an offense without making several mistakes along the way. Daniel Jones are the Giants are far from a perfect team, but they should win this matchup.
Pick: Giants win, cover spread
Over/Under: 43 [Pick: Under]
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-12.5)
Drew Brees and Matt Ryan should both be back for this, but that’s where the intrigue ends. The Atlanta Falcons have an atrocious defense, and Ryan hasn’t played up to his normal lofty standards thus far in 2019. Ryan needs to play like a superstar each and every week for his team to have a chance, and that probably won’t happen against New Orleans’ stacked roster. That said, a 12.5-point spread is just too large. The Saints should win comfortably, but Ryan and the Falcons should be able to keep it within 12.
Pick: Saints win, don’t cover spread
Over/Under: 51 [Pick: Over]
Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) at Tennessee Titans
Patrick Mahomes is getting healthier, but it’s looking like he won’t suit up in Week 10. Nonetheless, Matt Moore is more than capable of handling starting duties for another week. Andy Reid is an offensive mastermind, and the last two weeks proved that he can turn Moore into a productive passer. The Ryan Tannehill experience is a roller coaster, and the Titans don’t have what it takes to keep up with Kansas City’s passing attack.
Pick: Chiefs win, cover spread
Over/Under: 48.5 [Pick: Over]
Baltimore Ravens (-10) at Cincinnati Bengals
Ryan Finley is making his first career start for the worst team in football. What more do you need to know?
Pick: Ravens win, cover spread
Over/Under: 46 [Pick: Under]
Buffalo Bills at Cleveland Browns (-2.5)
How in the world are the Browns favored in this one? Win-loss record isn’t everything by any means, but the Bills are the vastly superior team here. Baker Mayfield took a major step back in 2019, Odell Beckham isn’t happy, and Freddie Kitchens simply isn’t ready to be a head coach. Say what you will about Josh Allen, but the Bills defense should be able to stop Mayfield and Cleveland’s passing game, while Allen should do just enough to keep the Bills comfortably ahead throughout the contest.
Pick: Bills win
Over/Under: 40 [Pick: Over]
Arizona Cardinals at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4)
Trying to bet on any game involving Jameis Winston is a fools’ errand. Winston is one of the most volatile quarterbacks in the league and is coming off a fantastic performance against the Seattle Seahawks. This was his second straight solid performance, so he’s probably due for some regression. On the other side is Kyler Murray and an upstart Arizona Cardinals team who almost pulled off the upset against the San Francisco 49ers. Murray’s improving on a weekly basis and should carry the Cardinals to victory in this matchup.
Pick: Cardinals win
Over/Under: 52 [Pick: Under]
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (-2.5)
Matthew Stafford is playing some of the best football in his career, while Mitchell Trubisky is playing like he belongs in the XFL. The Detroit Lions don’t have much of a defense, but they’re easily good enough to slow down this anemic passing attack. The Bears defense, meanwhile, isn’t playing up to their 2018 form. Stafford and company should be able to exploit this matchup and come away with a comfortable win.
Pick: Lions win
Over/Under: 42.5 [Pick: Under]
Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts (-10.5)
With or without Jacoby Brissett, the Colts should cruise to victory in this one. The Miami Dolphins aren’t the laughingstock they once were, but they’re still a bottom-three roster in the NFL. Brian Hoyer isn’t that much worse than Brissett, and Indianapolis has a considerably better roster.
Pick: Colts win, cover spread
Over/Under: 44 [Pick: Under]
Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers (-5)
Kyle Allen bounced back from an atrocious Week 8 to defeat the Tennessee Titans in Week 9. Allen is no superstar, but he continues to be a bridge-level quarterback who can win games in a managing role. Unfortunately, he’s probably not ready to keep pace with Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers fell back to Earth after two fantastic games, but he should revert to his top-10 level of play against Carolina. Allen can keep it close, but the Packers should prevail.
Pick: Packers win, don’t cover spread
Over/Under: 47.5 [Pick: Under]
Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers
The world has seen enough of Mason Rudolph to know he’s not the answer under center. Rudolph is a true checkdown king, and his conservative style of play won’t be enough to beat a desperate Los Angeles Rams team. Given two weeks to prepare, Sean McVay should have the calls necessary to overtake an admittedly talented Steelers defense. Playing in Pittsburgh isn’t easy, but the Rams should walk away with the win.
Pick: Rams win, cover spread
Over/Under: 45 [Pick: Over]
Minnesota Vikings at Dallas Cowboys (-3)
This is one of the hardest games of the week to figure out. On the one hand, the Dallas Cowboys haven’t played up to the sum of their parts at any point in the young season. At some point, talent has to win out and the Cowboys should go on a hot streak. On the other hand, Kirk Cousins has played at an exceptionally high level for the past month and is due for some negative regression. We already saw that start to kick in during Week 9, as the former Washington Redskins quarterback missed quite a few open throws against Kansas City. This game is an absolute coin toss, but let’s give the advantage to the home team.
Pick: Cowboys win, don’t cover spread
Over/Under: 47 [Pick: Over]
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (-6)
The Football Gods have saved the best game for last. This battle between the NFL’s best team and the presumed MVP frontrunner has the chance to be one for the ages. The San Francisco 49ers don’t have a true weakness on the roster, but nobody is capable of stopping Russell Wilson right now. Unfortunately for Wilson, the team around him is one of the worst in the defense. The defense, running game, and special teams are all below-average from an efficiency standpoint, and Kyle Shanahan is a better coach than Pete Carroll. Wilson’s good enough to keep this close, but the 49ers should prevail.
Pick: 49ers win, don’t cover spread
Over/Under: 45.5 [Pick: Over]
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