With NFL free agency well underway, the fates of DeAndre Hopkins and Odell Beckham Jr. are more connected than one might think. With both receivers looking for new teams this offseason, their respective transfers are highly linked to each other.
Beckham Jr. has been a free agent since the 2022 off-season. He last played football for the Los Angeles Rams and was a key part of their Super Bowl victory in the 2021 season. However, he missed the 2022 NFL season as he was rehabbing from ACL surgery. He has now torn his ACL in back-to-back seasons but is primed for a return in the 2023 season. Many teams had shown interest in signing Beckham Jr. during the 2022 season, but ultimately none pulled the trigger.
Hopkins was traded to the Arizona Cardinals in the 2020 off-season. The Cardinals acquired him for a second-round pick, David Johnson and a fourth-round pick swap. He has been an excellent asset for Kyler Murray and the Cardinals, but he has also failed to play a full season since 2020. In 2021, various injuries restricted Hopkins to just 10 games while, in 2022, a violation of the NFL’s PED policy led to a six-game suspension. In total, Hopkins managed just nine games in 2022.
As it stands, Beckham Jr. is a free agent. He is considered the top free agent wide receiver and has been rumored with a number of outfits for over a year now. Hopkins, meanwhile, is seeking a trade. The Cardinals’ disaster 2022 season has resulted in a changing of the guard in the desert. As such, Hopkins is a valuable piece that will be traded to free up cap space and recoup some draft capital.
How DeAndre Hopkins and Odell Beckham Jr are Linked
There are multiple similarities between Hopkins’ and Beckham Jr.’s situations. Both receivers are over the age of 30 but have established track records. Indeed, both Hopkins and Beckham Jr. have been among the top receivers for a number of years now. Any team acquiring either receiver would be getting a tried-and-tested weapon that can contribute as a primary wideout immediately.
Another key similarity is both players’ availability concerns. Hopkins’ suspension at the start of 2022 was down to a violation of the league’s PED policy but, even despite that, he has struggled with various sprains and ailments over the last couple of years. Beckham Jr.’s availability concerns are, perhaps, more palpable. While medical and sport science has evolved vastly, it is hard to overlook the fact that Beckham Jr. has now torn his ACL twice. Granted, his workout has suggested that he has recovered well, but could the injuries come back to haunt him?
The rather anemic wide receiver free agency market is also a cause for lumping Hopkins and Beckham Jr. together. With Jakobi Meyers, Juju Smith-Schuster, and Adam Thielen now signed, Hopkins and Beckham Jr.’s talent even further outweighs the rest of the free agent receivers. The likes of D.J. Chark, Mecole Hardman, and Marvin Jones Jr. are all good, but not bonafide primary receivers. While Jerry Jeudy is on the trade block and could be considered a rival to Hopkins and Beckham Jr., Jeudy does not have the reputation or stature of either of the veterans. As such, Hopkins and Beckham Jr. appear to be the only available candidates who could perform as a premier wideout.
Cost and Contract
Beckham Jr.’s free agent status means that he is free to sign for any team without any restrictions. Hopkins, however, will be traded. It is believed that Arizona and Monti Ossenfort are seeking a second-round pick plus a fourth or fifth-round pick. Given that Darren Waller got traded for a third-round pick and Jalen Ramsey fetched only a third and Hunter Long, there is a chance that Hopkins’ final trade value will be less than a second-round pick.
In terms of contract demands, both players will fetch decent salaries. It is unclear what Beckham Jr. is after currently, but it will be around $15-20 million. As for Hopkins, his cap number is just under $30 million this year. The assumption is that any team that acquires Hopkins will restructure his deal and offer him an extension. It was previously revealed that he would be happy to settle for a smaller contract to be on a competitive team. Despite this, expect him to fetch a deal worth around $20 million per year too.
Interested Teams
There are a number of teams interested in Hopkins and Beckham Jr., and many of them are interested in both. It is fair to assume that there will not be a team that will be able to acquire both receivers, although this is not out of the question.
The Dallas Cowboys were one of the teams that were known to be circling both receivers’ markets. Beckham Jr. was heavily linked to the Cowboys during the 2022 season, but those rumors have since cooled. It is also believed that Dallas called about Hopkins earlier in the off-season. However, with the Cowboys now acquiring Brandin Cooks via trade, their receiver room now looks much better. A move for either Hopkins or Beckham Jr. is not off the cards but looks increasingly unlikely.
The Kansas City Chiefs were rumored to be the frontrunners for Hopkins and remain in the conversation. Their win-now status makes them a good spot for both Hopkins and Beckham Jr. The same can be said of the Baltimore Ravens, who were heavily interested in Beckham Jr. during the 2022 season, alongside the Cowboys and a few other teams.
A couple of wildcard teams include the New York Giants, New England Patriots, and Carolina Panthers. While New England recently signed Smith-Schuster, that does not rule them out of grabbing Hopkins and Beckham Jr. given that Smith-Schuster is primarily a slot receiver. The Giants are looking for a top receiver to help Daniel Jones, making a Beckham Jr. homecoming a possibility. Meanwhile, the Panthers recently traded away D.J. Moore, meaning they also need a wideout to pair with their incoming rookie quarterback. These three teams are much further away from competing for a Super Bowl, however.
What This All Means for DeAndre Hopkins and Odell Beckham Jr.
So, with all these similarities in mind, what does this mean for DeAndre Hopkins and Odell Beckham Jr., exactly? The answer is that both receivers are (indirectly) dependent on each other’s markets. The similarities in situation, contract, and interested parties mean that, should a team sign either receiver, that team would likely be out of the market for the other receiver. It has thus become somewhat of a waiting game between the situations. Who will move first?
The availability of both Hopkins and Beckham Jr. also gives the interested teams leverage. Teams can remain conservative in their efforts to pursue either receiver with the knowledge that, even if they miss out on one of them, they can acquire the other. This is a powerful piece of leverage in contract talks with Beckham Jr. as well as trade talks with Arizona.
Once one receiver signs, the other will likely see a bump in interest. Say Hopkins is traded first, Beckham Jr. suddenly becomes much more expensive. Say Beckham Jr. signs first, Hopkins’ trade value would also increase. As such, Arizona and Beckham Jr. are in a slight standoff in order to maximize their respective trade return or salary.
There is a further complication with Hopkins’ situation, however. Given that draft picks will be involved, it could be that Arizona only trades him during the 2023 draft. Could Beckham Jr. wait that long to sign for a team? The other side to this is that Arizona cannot afford to trade him after the draft if they are seeking 2023 picks. As such, Beckham Jr. could feasibly outwait the Hopkins trade. However, do not rule out the fact that Arizona could also elect to not trade Hopkins after all.
Main Photo: Michael Chow – USA Today Sports
