Justin Jefferson is widely considered to be the best wide receiver in the NFL, making him a prime fantasy football asset for 2023.
A 2020 first-round pick out of LSU, Jefferson has gotten better every year in the NFL. Jefferson’s improvements have translated into fantasy finishes as WR6, WR4, and WR1.
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Jefferson is expected to break the bank in the next year, with contract talks upcoming. Entering 2023, what is the elite wideout’s fantasy football outlook?
Justin Jefferson Fantasy Football Outlook 2023
Justin Jefferson Fantasy Football 2022 Review
Jefferson finished as the WR1 in every format in 2022, with 128 catches, 1,809 yards, and eight receiving touchdowns. With a 29% target share, he led the NFL in targets, yards, catches, red zone targets, and red zone catches.
Jefferson averaged 106 yards per game on 11 targets per game. His 21.7 points per game were over a point higher than the next closest receiver and his 368.7 fantasy points were almost 30 points higher than the next best receiver.
Consistency was key too. Jefferson scored 30 points in 35% of his games and 18 points in 55% of his games.
First read targets leaders (per @FantasyPtsData which is great!)
– Davante Adams, 39%
– Cooper Kupp, 38%
– Ja’Marr Chase, 37%
– Tyreek Hill, 37%
– Stefon Diggs, 35%
– CeeDee Lamb, 34%
– Amon-Ra St. Brown, 34%
– Justin Jefferson, 34%
– DeAndre Hopkins, 34%
– Garrett Wilson, 33%— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) July 20, 2023
As expected, Jefferson was a consistent target hog with 11 targets in 65% of his games and 13 targets in 41%. Jefferson’s best stretch came in Weeks 14-16, where he averaged 31.6 points per game after three straight 30-point games.
He accomplished all of this with five games under 12 PPR points, scary to think that there is still room to grow.
Justin Jefferson is a big rebound regression candidate
While he finished as WR1 in 2022, he did so on 8 touchdowns with 11.1 expected touchdowns.
Only caught 2 touchdown passes on 14 targets in the end zone.
So far and away the WR1.
— Analytics of Dynasty (@McNamaraDynasty) July 24, 2023
Justin Jefferson 2023 Preview
The Vikings lost Adam Thielen to free agency this off-season and cut Dalvin Cook a few weeks ago. With the loss of Cook the Vikings are expected to pass even more than they did in 2022.
Alexander Mattison will take over as the lead back, but he is not expected to get the same type of touches that Cook commanded.
The Vikings made up for the loss of Thielen by adding rookie wide receiver Jordan Addison out of USC. Addison was recently cited for a traffic-related incident, but it is too early to know if he will be disciplined for that.
T.J. Hockensen is coming into his first full season with the Vikings, but neither him or Addison should affect Jefferson’s target share all that much. The loss of Thielen, however, is a huge boost for Jefferson.
Since Jefferson entered the league, Thielen has led the Vikings in redzone catches, yards, and touchdowns. Thielen has scored nine more redzone touchdowns than Jefferson on eight fewer targets.
Taking away away Jefferson’s rookie season, Thielen has still led the Vikings in redzone targets the last two seasons. The veteran receiver accomplished all this while playing in five fewer games.
Thus, Thielen leaving the Vikings is a blessing in disguise for Jefferson’s fantasy outlook this season.
2022 Top 10 WR Red Zone Targets:
1. Justin Jefferson (28)
2. D.K. Metcalf (27)
3. Ja’Marr Chase (24)
4. Stefon Diggs (23)
5. Davante Adams (22)
6. Christian Kirk (22)
7. Amon Ra St. Brown (21)
8. Adam Thielen (21)
9. Garrett Wilson (19)
10. Zay Jones (18)— Snoog’s Dynasty Society (@FFSnoog) July 16, 2023
Average Draft Position
Since the off-season began, Jefferson has been the projected number one overall pick in every format. That has not changed, and probably will not change.
With seven wide receivers currently having a round-one ADP (average draft position), taking Jefferson number-one overall is great value.
The first-round running backs (Christian Mccaffery, Austin Ekeler, Bijan Robinson, and Saquon Barkley) all have injury concerns or are unproven at this point in time.
Cooper Kupp has a great argument to go ahead of Jefferson. However, his and Matthew Stafford’s injury concerns are what makes Jefferson the safest and highest ceiling player this year in fantasy.
WR leaders in top-10 finish % over the last two years:
1. Cooper Kupp (65%)
—
2. Justin Jefferson (44%)
3. Davante Adams (42%)
T4. Tyreek Hill (38%)
T4. Deebo Samuel (38%)
6. Stefon Diggs (36%)
7. Ja'Marr Chase (34%)Every WR on this list top-8 by ADP – except Deebo (WR17)
— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) June 7, 2023
Main Photo: Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports
