Sometimes all a player needs is a change of scenery. Before last season, long-time New York Giants tight end Evan Engram left in free agency to go play for the Jacksonville Jaguars. In 2022, Evan Engram had a career resurgence on his way to a TE5 finish in PPR formats and averaged 10.41 PPG which was good enough to be top-10 at the position. During his first season as a Jacksonville Jaguar, he had career bests in receptions and yards, and second-best in receiving touchdowns. Thanks to Engram’s career year, it helped him secure a new three-year deal after being franchise-tagged earlier in the offseason. Can Evan Engram build upon his 2022 production or was it just another anomaly in his career?
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2023 Fantasy Football Player Profile: Evan Engram
Light Showers With a High Chance of Bust
Among the top eight PPR fantasy tight ends in 2022, Evan Engram had the second-lowest target share at 17.07%. Not only did Engram have a low target share for a top tight end, but he was also the third-targeted player on the Jaguars. Why does this matter? Calvin Ridley’s back from a year-long suspension and is eager to show the world he’s still a “dominant” playmaker. Adding a player such as Ridley’s caliber isn’t ideal for Engram’s volume and he’s likely going to take a statistical hit from a season ago. Targets were already tough to come by and this year they’ll be even more difficult to collect in a crowded receiver room.
#FantasyFootball 2022 Top8 PPR Tight End Target Shares.
Who do you think stays and who goes?
(My Thoughts On Each Player Below⤵️) pic.twitter.com/4koJkJ1Z6m
— Austin Thomas (@Austin_Thomas18) August 14, 2023
The Over/Under of Number 5.5
Last season Evan Engram averaged 5.76 targets per game. To be consistent with Vegas, let’s mark the over/under at 5.5 per game. In games where Engram received over 5.5 targets he had 16.16 PPG whereas when he had below that 5.5 number, it was a measly 3.94 PPG. That doesn’t seem like a good ratio and is the epitome of a boom-or-bust player. With Engram’s volume expected to decrease from last year, it’s going to be tough drawing six targets consistently and he’ll encounter more “bust” weeks than not.
To keep it simple, Engram was good when he got 6 or more targets & a non-factor when he got less than 5.
16.16 PPG compared to 3.94 PPGWith the addition of WR Calvin Ridley to this offense it's hard to see how Engram returns any sort of positive value at his current TE8 ADP pic.twitter.com/sH0FZ2jpoB
— Austin Thomas (@Austin_Thomas18) August 14, 2023
This Jaguar’s Roar Has Been Silenced
Evan Engram’s ADP of TE8 is as spotty as his furry mascot. There are more negatives working against him than positives in his 2023 fantasy outlook. At TE8, Engram’s being drafted close to his ambitious ceiling leaving very little room for error to give a return on investment or, at the very least, match last year’s totals. There are more adequate tight end options later in the draft that offer much better value. Don’t get stuck with Engram and let your fellow league mates draft him instead!
Main Photo: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports
