Tired of wasting picks on a fantasy football defense that doesn’t pan out? It’s okay, defenses are one of the hardest positions to predict. But with this fantasy football defense strategy, defense worries will be for real NFL franchises, not your fantasy squads.
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Easy Winning Fantasy Football Defense Strategy
Step One
Don’t panic in the draft room. It’s hard to watch everyone else take defenses and kickers and fill out their roster without having one yet. Filling out a roster isn’t maximizing the potential for skill position players to help out. Finding a mid to late-round gem can be the difference between a playoff appearance and a last-place finish. The difference between the D/ST eight and 18 last season was .3 points per game. For the most part, it was unpredictable in the preseason and boom-bust in season. Wait and use your last pick, or second-to-last pick if kicker isn’t a priority on a defense.
Step Two
Identify the best matchups in week one. Is it better to have a great defense, or to have the defense playing a terrible offense? The New England Patriots finished the year as the number one D/ST, but in week one they only scored four fantasy points. They played the Miami Dolphins. Coincidence?
To maximize points from a defense in fantasy football, it’s more about finding bad offenses and picking up the team they’re playing. The defenses that played the Buffalo Bills only scored nine or more points twice. The Jets, who had five sacks and two interceptions against Josh Allen only put up ten total fantasy points. Then the Vikings in the crazy overtime game with a few flukey defensive scores.
Conversely, defenses that played the Houston Texans scored nine or more fantasy points eight times throughout the season. This included the Las Vegas Raiders who finished as the league’s 31st defense in fantasy, the Cleveland Browns putting up 27 points as a defense, and the Washington Commanders with 19. There also wasn’t a single week the defense playing the Texans put up negative points, so high floor high ceiling.
These are the two extremes, but this holds true against the bottom five offenses in the league. Basically, instead of trying to find a stalwart defense, just find a lackluster offense and grab their opponent from waivers.
Teams to Target
The fans of these teams don’t want to hear it, but rookie quarterbacks struggle to support their wide receivers and are notoriously turnover-prone to start the season. The Texans, Colts, and Panthers all stick out as early targets. Those teams will likely get stronger as the season continues, so this only holds true for week one. The Buccanneers aren’t inspiring confidence on offense with Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask duking it out in a rough quarterback competition. The Cardinals might be openly tanking in 2023, so until Kyler Murray returns they’re a prime target for this fantasy football defense strategy.
The teams playing the five targets in week one are the Baltimore Ravens, Minnesota Vikings, Atlanta Falcons, Washington Commanders, and Jacksonville Jaguars. They all go outside of the top ten defenses, which is why waiting on defense is so crucial.
Step Three
Adjust and repeat. Offenses will flop early in the season and become targets, teams will surprise and over-produce. Look forward two weeks and grab the defense that is playing one of these sub-par teams. Using the waiver wire as an advantage at defense saves a roster spot and gives fantasy football teams that use this strategy an edge.
Read More
Full 2023 Fantasy Football Guide
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Main Photo Credit: Philip G. Pavely-USA TODAY Sports
