Jayden Daniels is gaining some serious steam in dynasty circles. The quarterback prospect from LSU already has a Heisman under his belt, what is his outlook in the NFL and for our fantasy teams?
Jayden Daniels Dynasty Outlook – Fantasy Football
The History
Daniels tore it up in his final season at LSU. His draft profile covers the whole journey, but it boils down to a few mediocre at best years followed by an immense step forward in 2023. Since he doesn’t have any history in the NFL, what we can look at is the historical data for hit rate of quarterbacks in the first round. Most mock drafts have him going in the top five, so we’ll assume he’s a first round pick. With that, 50% of first round quarterbacks put together a top 24 season the last six drafts. Additionally, 31% put together top 12 seasons. So, in Superflex leagues, without even taking the specific strengths and weaknesses of the player into account, he’s got a coin flip of being a starter for your teams.
The Situation
Mock drafts have a couple of different landing spots for Daniels, but the consensus seems to be three overall to the New England Patriots. Whether he goes to the Patriots, Commanders or a team like the Saints trade up, he’s going to be insulated by his draft position. First round quarterbacks can look absolutely terrible in their rookie season, and still hold value moving forward. Don’t believe me? Bryce Young is still the QB18 on public rankings. Zach Wilson floated between QB15-19 the summer after his rookie season. His value will be secure.
Jayden Daniels Dynasty Price
While there are many places to get dynasty prices, keeptradecut is crowdsourced and is as close to public sentiment as possible. Daniels is between the 1.02 and 1.04 in rookie drafts right now, which places him somewhere in between QB9 (Jordan Love) and QB13 (Tua Tagovailoa). At this price, what should you do with him on competing teams, rebuilding teams, and teams stuck in the middle?
Competing teams probably want a more immediate payoff with a proven asset. With an early pick like this, you can flip him for Kyler Murray who hasn’t had less than 18 points per game in a season ever. Worst case scenario, Daniels becomes a superstar, and you have… well… another superstar. For teams stuck in the middle, I love the idea of taking Daniels and seeing what he turns into. He can be the type of prospect to turn into a top five dynasty quarterback, or you can take his rushing output early in the season and flip him for an underperforming veteran.
Watch – Related: Jayden Daniels Film Study
It gets tricky for rebuilding teams. The 1.02 – 1.04 range is stacked with potential cornerstone players, but Daniels is definitely my favorite of the bunch. The best way to gain value in the draft right now is to trade back to the end of the tier and try and gain any swings in the second round in 2024 or 2025 possible. If you want to stretch it even further, the 1.07 is the big drop off in value. Between Daniels, Maye, Bowers, Marvin Harrison Jr and Nabers, there’s no glaring red flags in the top six. If you want to maximize value, move back and gain incremental amounts then leave the draft with a certified stud in May (or whenever you do your rookie drafts).
Last Word on Jayden Daniels Dynasty Outlook
Daniels is currently the 1.02 in our Superflex rankings, and is one of the most exciting players in the draft. The lofty value is justified, and if there’s a player that can catapult to the top eight of superflex startups for 2025, it’s Jayden Daniels.
Main Photo Credit: SCOTT CLAUSE/USA TODAY Network / USA TODAY NETWORK
