Before investing in rookie quarterbacks for our fantasy football teams, let’s take a look at how they’ve produced the past ten seasons. For this study, I took every first-round quarterback from 2013-2023, filtered it by those that have played more than ten games then looked at their PPG finish and PPG raw numbers. The results can provide actionable advice to drafters in 2024 and beyond.
Note: Lamar Jackson was omitted due to his gadget usage in over half the season, and all veteran quarterbacks who did not play ten games were also removed to show a clearer picture of the actual fantasy impact.
The History of Rookie Quarterbacks in Fantasy Football
The Good
It could definitely be worse. Of the 22 quarterbacks who played more than ten games, they finished with an average of QB21 and just over 14.3 PPG. There was a clear trend among rookies that performed well – they all either had a rushing floor or were close to setting records in passing. Mayfield, Herbert, and Stroud led the way through the air, while Murray, Allen, and Mariota were all threats on the ground.
If fantasy football drafters are going to hitch their wagon to a rookie quarterback, they should look for environments where a rookie can shine one way or the other. Washington’s Jayden Daniels has an OC with experience with Kyler Murray, and Caleb Williams may have the best weapons of any first-round pick ever.
Watch: Jayden Daniels Film Study
The Bad
When they’re bad, they’re really bad. First off, of the 31 quarterbacks taken in the first round 2013-2023, only 22 played ten or more games. Only nine averaged more than 14 points per game. Essentially two-thirds were dead in the water for 1QB leagues. This is for a variety of reasons, from the hit rate already being painfully low to freak injuries to pocket passers adjusting to the league just not getting enough volume to make a fantasy football impact.
Whether it’s the environment they’re in or the individual player’s talent, first-round quarterbacks have been a tough bet to make. This is likely part of the reason they impact their weapons so negatively.
The Range and the Case for Each Quarterback
The bottom line, in 1QB leagues rookie quarterbacks are a late dart throw at best. Both Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels are going in the right place to fill in as a manager’s quarterback, but not such a high investment that they should worry about moving on. Drake Maye, Bo Nix, and J.J. McCarthy are all essentially free, and if any has the impact that C.J. Stroud had on the Texans, they could be a steal in drafts.
Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears
Williams was the consensus best quarterback, going to the best position, and still gives enough on the ground to keep him afloat each week. If one of the best prospects of the past ten years can’t perform, quarterback scouts might just need to call it a day.
Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders
Daniels was third in the SEC last year in rushing. No, not just among quarterbacks, among all players. The SEC is a breeding ground for NFL talent, and Daniels put up 160 yards on the ground against Alabama to show what his possible upside is.
Drake Maye, New England Patriots
Does he have weapons? Unfortunately no. But if Daniels didn’t exist we’d be talking about Maye as a true dual-threat quarterback. Maye forced over 20 missed tackles the past two seasons and pairs that with the best deep passing grade (97.1) that I’ve ever seen from PFF for a college prospect. Pairing that deep ball with Javon Baker and Ja’Lynn Polk is going to be a sight to behold.
Bo Nix, Denver Broncos
Sean Payton doesn’t want to air it out. That’s a good thing with Nix, whose ADOT was under eight the past two seasons. He has wheels of his own and should be able to keep the offense on schedule in Denver.
J.J. McCarthy, Minnesota Vikings
Sure, he only attempted 482 passes in college over three years (two as a starter). But he’s a toolsy prospect who can zip the ball all over the field with a 6.8% big-time throw percentage. For comparison, Justin Herbert only put up 5% his senior season at Oregon. Pairing him with Justin Jefferson and Kevin O’Connell can only be a good thing.
Main Photo Credit: Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports
Universal Responsible Gambling Disclaimer: Ages 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
