As the offseason drags on and the countdown to the NFL season is now in double digits, what better time to take advantage of some early season-long rushing prop bets? Running backs are always risky, given the wear and tear on the bodies in a long season. However, the oddsmakers at DraftKings may be giving you an early gift. Check out my four favorite season-long rushing prop bets for the 2024 NFL season.
Rushing Prop Bets Sure to Pay for 2024 NFL Season
Jonathan Brooks – o775.5 Rushing Yards (+110)
The Carolina Panthers were an all-around bad offense in 2023. Their significant investment in the running back position, Miles Sanders, was a bust. And somehow, 2021 fourth-round pick Chuba Hubbard finished with 902 rushing yards on abysmal efficiency metrics. Overall, the rushing offense was no.19 in attempts, no.20 in yards, and no.23 in yards per attempt. So, back to the drawing board, the Panthers went, selecting Jonathon Brooks 46th overall and the first running back off the board in the 2024 draft.
New Head Coach and offensive play-caller Dave Canales has spoken highly of Brooks in the early going and the importance of fixing the Panthers run game. Canales nearly had a 1000-yard rusher last season with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He did so by force-feeding a massive opportunity to one of the most wildly inefficient backs in Rachaad White. Not to mention they also traded up to land Brooks. The offense may not be the sexiest to bet on, but this is an offense that ran an 11th-ranked 64.5 plays per game last season, and the opportunities need to go somewhere. The fact they invested so highly in running back. What Chuba Hubbard was capable of behind a bottom-ten offensive line. An over 775.5 yards is easily in the books for a running back whose job is his to lose.
Najee Harris – o6.5 Touchdowns (+105)
Najee Harris has hit the over on 6.5 rushing touchdowns in all three of his seasons in the NFL. This with scoring offenses that ranked: 28th, 26th, and 21st in scoring. Now, quarterback Russell Wilson and new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith may not make you very confident in the offense scoring at a much better clip. However, over the last two seasons running the Atlanta Falcons offense, Smith’s offense has run the ball over 30 times per game, both seasons ranked in the top three.
There is speculation about Jaylen Warren eating into Harris’ touches. Harris has seen a decline in carries each season, but an increase in each season in red zone touches. He has exceeded the over 6.5 touchdowns in red zone touchdowns alone each of the last two seasons. Even if Harris loses touches, he is built for the red zone and won’t see his red zone carries decline to be a detriment. Harris has been a low-scoring and slow-moving offense his entire Pittsburgh Steelers career. We can only hope that the offense improves and makes this over an easy smash. For now, it’s a safe bet.
Tony Pollard – o800.5 Rushing Yards (+120)
Tony Pollard walks into an extremely unique opportunity. Filling the void with the Tennessee Titans left by King Derrick Henry. No one is expecting him to come in and rush 20 times a game like Henry. And the offense will definitely look much different and continue to shift away from its previous rush-dominant play style behind Henry.
Pollard ranks no. 10 among running backs yearly contract average for salary and walks into a fairly wide-open running back room. The only real threat to his work is Tyjae Spears. Again, money talks in the early portion of a running back contract because it’s when he is costing you the most. Pollard isn’t by any means an elite running back and has seen his efficiency dip with more touches. However, under 800.5 is almost disrespectful coming off back-to-back 1000-yard seasons. One season, he split carries 15 to 12 per game to Ezekiel Elliot, which he received the lesser.
The fantasy brains can hypothesize about Spears versus Pollard and who will get the bulk of touches. However, Pollard averaged 62 rushing yards per game in a split backfield two seasons ago with Ezekiel Elliot. While getting the lesser carries. The Titans offense may not be the Dallas Cowboys high octane offense Pollard is accustomed to. However, getting to over 800 yards rushing is something worth taking the shot on the over. It’s one of the safer rushing prop bets based on his contract and his performance in the last two seasons in a backfield of his own and a split one.
Zack Moss – o6.5 Rushing TDs (+105)
Over the last three seasons, former Cincinnati Bengal running back Joe Mixon has ranked top-ten in red zone touches. He has exceeded 45 in each of those three seasons. This has also led him to 9 or more touchdowns in each of the last three seasons. Mixon is out and now Zack Moss steps in. We all remember Zach Moss from last season covering for Jonathan Taylor and starting as he was injured or being brought back into action. Moss ended up with five total rushing touchdowns. He managed this on 183 carries, his 39 carries inside the 20 ranked no. 10 among running backs.
Moss now becomes the face of the Cincinnati Bengals backfield. He shares the load with an unproven fifth-round pick in Chase Brown, who had a whole 58 touches in his rookie season. Even if you don’t like Moss to lead the backfield, he will absolutely shoulder a significant load of work inside the 20. He had five touchdowns across four games last season, three games in which he was the starter. Moss had an inconsistent season of touches due to playing second fiddle to Jonathan Taylor when healthy. However, betting the over 6.5 touchdowns based on his size and ability in the red zone, plus the opportunity presented in a wide-open backfield, is a home run.
There are some great season-long rushing prop bets where choosing the underdog will pay. Now is the time to get in on them before the lines start to shift.
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Main Image: Steven Bisig – USA Today Sports
