The Diontae Johnson trade this offseason turned some heads, but his fantasy football outlook in 2024 is still one of the more underrated ones in ADP. With a new quarterback, a new system, and less target competition, can Diontae Johnson return to fantasy football utility? Or is he just another wide receiver in a sea of WR3s and WR4s? Let’s take a look.
Diontae Johnson – Panthers Wide Receiver Fantasy Football Outlook 2024
2024 Projections
Regardless of how managers feel about Bryce Young, he has to be an upgrade over Kenny Pickett. Bad-quarterback-itis has plagued Johnson throughout his career, but Dave Canales has a sterling track record of turning around quarterback’s careers. Johnson hasn’t posted below a 20% target share since he was a rookie competing with JuJu Smith-Schuster (when he was good) for targets. Quick math, if Canales attempts close to the 568 passes that he called in Tampa Bay, Johnson is due for over 110 targets. The worst-case scenario in PPR leagues is 97 points, using his catch percentage alone. Add in his yards per reception and a sprinkle of touchdowns, he’s a locked and loaded WR2.
Johnson’s career history has plenty of signs for optimism in 2024. He has three seasons over 800 yards and already has a 1,000-yard season under his belt. He’s been held back by an offense that’s been 25th and 24th in passing yards per game the past two seasons. The Panthers were 32nd in 2023, but a rookie quarterback and horrible coaching staff will have that sort of impact. Adding a pass catcher like Johnson and a coach like Canales can do wonders for an offense, and this is a player to target at cost.
Canales has stated he wants to run the offense through the running game and targets to Johnson. That’s great news coming out of camp, but now that we’ve seen a year of Jonathan Mingo and Xavier Legette is dealing with an injury, Johnson is going to be competing with… 70-year-old Adam Thielen? Fourth-round rookie tight end JT Sanders? It’s not quite the same as competing with George Pickens in one of the worst passing offenses in the country. The bottom line, Diontae Johnson has the talent to be a viable fantasy wide receiver when healthy.
Diontae Johnson 2024 ADP
Johnson is the consensus WR38 off the board according to FantasyPros. Given the other wide receivers in his range are Jordan Addison playing with a rookie quarterback or Sam Darnold, DeAndre Hopkins dealing with an injury of his own, Johnson should be an easy click. Wide receivers are getting pushed up the board more and more. But it’s important to note the difference between the WR16 and the WR33 last year was less than 30 points. Better explained, the difference was essentially big play variance and touchdowns.
Given Johnson’s safe floor due to target share and his low ADP, he’s the type of receiver that can keep fantasy teams afloat as a WR3 while other teams scramble to find matchup reliant fill-ins. Diontae Johnson’s 2024 fantasy football outlook is a bright one, and his ADP is low enough that if Young continues to hold the offense back or Johnson gets hurt it won’t decimate your team.
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