The MVP race is heating up, as Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, and Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley are all in the mix for the game’s highest individual honor. While Barkley and Allen are having remarkable seasons, the stats show that Lamar Jackson should be the frontrunner. While anything could happen between now and the end of the regular season, Jackson should be the favorite as we enter the season’s stretch run.
The Stats That Show Why Lamar Jackson Should Win MVP
0.281 EPA/Play
In the most simple terms, the quarterback’s job is to move the ball efficiently down the field, and Lamar Jackson excels at that. According to the advanced stats website rbsdm.com, Jackson’s 0.281 EPA/play leads the league. While no stat perfectly encapsulates the quarterback’s job, EPA/play comes the closest. Jackson’s 0.281 mark is just ahead of the second-place Allen (0.266) and suggests the Ravens quarterback does a better job of moving the ball down the field.
91.9 PFF Grade
EPA/play measures team results, and while a quarterback is the largest driving force behind the success of an offense, he’s not the only part of the equation. Pro Football Focus grades measure individual plays on a snap-by-snap and, in theory, account for any benefits of an elite supporting cast or coaching scheme. With this in mind, Jackson’s 91.9 PFF grade leads the NFL, which suggests he is the primary driving force behind his league-best EPA/play. Film review is inherently subjective, so this is also not a perfect metric, but it’s hard to lead the league in PFF grade and EPA/play without being the most important player on the field.
8.9 Yards Per Attempt
EPA/play and PFF grade aren’t everyone’s cup of tea, but traditional stats also show that Lamar Jackson should be the MVP. The former first-round pick is currently leading the league in yards per attempt at 8.9, and this doesn’t take into account his dangerous ability as a runner. Mark Andrews and first-round pick Zay Flowers are reliable pass catchers, but they’re not elite weapons by any stretch of the imagination. By every meaningful metric, Jackson is the league’s most efficient quarterback on a per-play basis.
3,053 Total Passing Yards
Critics of the per-play stats might claim that Derrick Henry is the focal point of the Ravens offense instead of Lamar Jackson. While the former Tennessee Titan is having a remarkable season in his own right, it’s hard to defend this point. Despite having an elite running back on the roster, Jackson leads the league with 3,053 passing yards and is 11th in the NFL with 343 passing attempts. While Henry is a remarkable player, Jackson does most of the heavy lifting for a team whose defense has struggled throughout the season.
“Valuable”
This article has primarily focused on why Lamar Jackson deserves the MVP award over Josh Allen instead of Saquon Barkley. While the former second-overall pick is fantastic, there is no justification for giving an award based on value to a running back instead of a quarterback. The Eagles didn’t have Barkley last year, and they finished the 2023 campaign with the seventh-best offense in terms of EPA/play. By comparison, the team ranks 6th in EPA/play in 2024. If Jackson went down, the Ravens season would be over.
Saquon Barkley deserves to be Offensive Player of the Year, an award designed for the game’s best player regardless of position. However, the MVP must go to a quarterback, and Lamar Jackson has narrowly outplayed Josh Allen up to this point in the season.
Main Photo: Sam Greene – USA Today Sports
