Chances are, superstar wide receivers Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase will be two of the first three players selected in your fantasy football draft. The LSU products are probably the two best receivers in real life football, and both players are paired with quarterbacks that are more than capable of delivering accurate passes. Both players will be great in 2023, but which player should you take when you’re on the clock?
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Draft Ja’Marr Chase Over Justin Jefferson in Fantasy Football
The Usage
Justin Jefferson had a season to remember last year, leading the NFL in receptions (128) and receiving yards (1,809) while finishing as the overall WR1. He did all this despite “only” scoring eight touchdowns. Based on his usage, he should’ve finished with around 11 scores. Ja’Marr Chase, meanwhile, only played in 12 games but still managed to record 87 receptions for 1,046 yards and nine touchdowns.
Your 2023 Play of the Year goes to Justin Jefferson and the Minnesota Vikings 👏 pic.twitter.com/rBEJ9qmRnd
— ✈ (@JJETSFAN) July 13, 2023
While Jefferson beat Chase in overall production, their usage was shockingly similar. Both players had identical 29.3% target shares and finished with essentially the same air yards share (36.6% for Chase, 36.9% for Jefferson). Of course, not all targets are created equal, and Chase’s 33.3% red zone target share outweighs that of Jefferson (27.2%).
So, when viewed through this lens, one can reasonably conclude that both players had remarkably similar usage last year, and neither had the edge on the other. Of course, these are just rate stats – fantasy football is all about volume at the end of the day, so now we need to see which of Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase is more likely to receive more overall looks.
The Volume/Efficiency
The Minnesota Vikings and Cincinnati Bengals both threw the ball with insane frequency last year, and it’s hard to blame either team for their pass-heavy ways. The Bengals threw the ball on 66% of their offensive snaps, which makes sense when you have Joe Burrow at quarterback and arguably the best wide receiver duo in the game. However, what’s even more impressive was their 7.6% pass rate over expected, the second-highest mark in the league. Regardless of situation, Cincinnati was always looking for ways to throw the football.
Minnesota, meanwhile, finished the year with a 65% pass rate, good for the fifth-highest mark in the league. However, while Cincinnati threw early and often, Minnesota had to throw because their defense was terrible. The Vikings only had a 2.5% pass rate over expected, so their total attempts should go down now that they won’t be playing catch-up every single week.
In summation, Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase saw roughly the same rate of targets on offenses that threw the ball at the same rate. So, why did Justin Jefferson average 21.7 fantasy points per game, while Chase only averaged 20.2? The answer comes down to efficiency, as Jefferson’s 2.79 yards per route run easily eclipsed Chase’s 2.18.
The 2022 version of Justin Jefferson was better than the 2022 version of Ja’Marr Chase. However, in a vacuum, both players are equally talented, so this gap in yards per route run likely won’t be as dramatic in 2023. Chances are, Chase will be more efficient this year and finish among the top 5-10 receivers in yards per route run. So, with that in mind, which player is in a better situation to succeed in 2023?
Ja’Marr Chase vs Justin Jefferson: Situation
Up until this point, just about all of the analysis has focused on what Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase did last year. While, historically speaking, points per game is one of the most predictive metrics for future success, it doesn’t perfectly capture the entire picture. We still need to take a look at what’s changed for both receivers heading into 2023.
Stability is key in fantasy football, and Ja’Marr Chase is in one of the NFL’s most stable situations. The Cincinnati Bengals are a well-oiled machine, as head coach, offensive coordinator, and quarterback are all coming back for another season. Additionally, the team did not bring in any additional weapons of note, so we don’t need to worry about new target competition.
Ja’Marr Chase has the burners 🔥#WhoDey #Bengals
pic.twitter.com/dCFnh0ZAqi— Joe Shiesty (@JoeCoolStan) July 16, 2023
The same cannot be said for Justin Jefferson. While he still has his coaches and quarterback, the team replaced Adam Thielen with first-round rookie Jordan Addison. Thielen clearly lost a step over the past few years, and there is a very real chance that Addison is a more productive player in 2023 than Thielen was in 2022. While this won’t dramatically impact Jefferson’s target share, it could lead to one or two fewer looks per game.
Additionally, as alluded to earlier, the Vikings probably won’t throw the ball as frequently in 2023. Minnesota had one of the worst defenses in football last year, but they should improve with Brian Flores calling the shots. Seeing as the Vikings won’t need to play catch-up as frequently, there won’t be as many pass attempts to go around.
Ultimately, Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase are both going to have phenomenal seasons. However, if you could only pick one for fantasy football, you should go with Chase.
Main Photo: Sam Greene – USA Today Sports
