New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara will miss the first three games of the 2023 season following charges stemming from a physical altercation back in February. Looking at this purely from a fantasy football lens, the Alvin Kamara suspension has serious implications not only for Kamara himself, but also for teammates Jamaal Williams and Kendre Miller. So, what should we do with Kamara, and which backup running back will step up in the five-time Pro Bowler’s absence?
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Fantasy Football: The Alvin Kamara Suspension
Alvin Kamara Himself
Let’s start this off by analyzing the man himself. This article is coming out just one day after the Alvin Kamara suspension became official, so it’s far too early to tell how this news will impact his average draft position. Everybody knew some type of suspension was coming, but most expected it to be more than three games. FantasyPros ADP currently has Kamara as the RB24 off the board, placing him in the same neighborhood as guys like Rachaad White, Dalvin Cook, J.K. Dobbins, and James Conner. If I had to guess, I’d expect his ADP to actually rise into the RB20 range.
This is a steep price to pay for a player that is guaranteed to miss at least three games. Now, if this was 2018, this is a price you’d happily pay for an elite talent like Kamara. However, the present-day version of the running back is starting to show signs of slowing down.
Now entering his age-28 season, Kamara is officially at the age where running back production tends to fall off a cliff. We saw signs of this last year, as Kamara finished the season as the RB13 in PPR points per game despite leading the league in snap share and finishing fourth in opportunity share.
This discrepancy between opportunity and production was largely due to Kamara not making the most of his opportunities. Last year, the running back ranked 46th in true yards per carry, 48th in breakawaay run rate, and 32nd in PFF grade. In short, he’s still a solid running back, but he’s not a great one anymore.
When Kamara is actually on the field, he’ll probably be a low-end RB1 or a high-end RB2. However, does that production justify an early- to mid-round selection? Personally, I’d rather target a wide receiver or quarterback instead of Alvin Kamara in my fantasy football draft.
Jamaal Williams, Kendre Miller Fantasy Football Outlook
Every single starting running back carries some fantasy football relevance, and that will be especially true of whichever running back replaces Alvin Kamara. The New Orleans Saints are notorious for building their offense through the short-passing game, and Dennis Allen has kept that tradition alive even with Sean Payton in Denver.
Jamaal Williams and Kendre Miller will split snaps early on, but Williams is probably the player to own. While I personally believe that Williams’ 14-touchdown 2022 was a complete outlier, the fact remains that he is more qualified than Miller to handle starting duties. The veteran running back is effective in short-yardage situations and has decent enough hands to handle passing work. Touchdowns and receptions win fantasy football leagues, and Jamaal Williams has a clear path to both roles.
#Lions Jamaal Williams is a national treasure😂pic.twitter.com/p8QCeHELsC
— NFL Unlimited (@NFLUnlimited) January 9, 2023
Based on raw talent alone, Kendre Miller is probably the better player, but he is a rookie. Going from college to the NFL is an insanely hard adjustment, and just about every player in the league needs some time to adjust to this insane jump in talent. If the Alvin Kamara suspension lasted six or more games, then perhaps Miller could earn some fantasy football relevance. However, seeing as Kamara will only be sidelined for three weeks, Miller probably won’t have the time to steal the starting job from Williams.
Ultimately, Jamaal Williams is a fine pick in the 10th round or later as a short-term flex play with a decent ceiling as a handcuff. Kendre Miller, meanwhile, should be in the running for your final pick, as the rookie could overtake Williams for the backup job down the stretch and fill in if injuries strike.
Main Photo: Stephen Lew – USA Today Sports
