Bill Belichick has done what he does best: take a clear backfield and make it confusing for everyone. Third-year running back Rhamondre Stevenson had a clear path to a three-down workload for fantasy football, but now he has to compete with a newly-signed Ezekiel Elliott. Elliott is obviously not the player he once was, but he’s still good enough to earn some touches. So, how will this backfield shape up for New England?
Fantasy Football Player Profiles
Fantasy Football: Rhamondre Stevenson, Ezekiel Elliott Outlook
Ezekiel Elliott is a big name in fantasy football, but at this point in time, he is not a better football player than Rhamondre Stevenson. However, in order to determine his projected usage, we first need to look at how Belichick utilized his running backs last year and see how Elliott fits into the equation. Is he simply here to be an insurance policy, or will he eat into Stevenson’s workload?
Bill Belichick is notorious in the fantasy football world for using a committee approach to the running back position. Generally speaking, the legendary head coach prefers to have one back for early downs, one back for passing downs, and a third back that can do a little bit of both. However, that isn’t what happened last year.
Rhamondre Stevenson The Workhorse?
Rhamondre Stevenson was basically the only offensive player that had a good year for the 2022 New England Patriots. Appearing in all 17 games, the running back finished the season with 1,040 rushing yards and five touchdowns on 210 carries to go along with 69 receptions for 421 yards and one touchdown on 88 targets. He had one of the largest workloads in the league, finishing sixth in weighted opportunities, fourth in target share, and 12th in snap share.
Stevenson made the most of his opportunities, but this increased workload was not by design. Just about running back on the Patriots except for Stevenson suffered some type of serious injury, leaving the former fourth-round pick as the only option in the backfield. Damien Harris missed six games while receiving back Ty Montgomery only appeared in no game. The only other backs on the roster were rookie late-round picks Pierre Strong and Kevin Harris, so Belichick had no choice but to give Stevenson as many touches as physically possible.
This probably isn’t going to happen again. For what it’s worth, Stevenson himself spoke out about how the heavy workload impacted him down the stretch and the Patriots have been limiting his touches in training camp. These factors combined with Belichick’s historical preferences tell us that, barring injury, Rhamondre Stevenson’s days as a three-down workhorse are probably over. So, how will Ezekiel Elliott impact Rhamondre Stevenson for fantasy football?
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Projections
Ezekiel Elliott no longer has the same burst as he did when he entered the league, but he can still be decently effective between the tackles and hasn’t lost a step when it comes to pass protection. Make no mistake, Stevenson is the superior early-down runner, but Elliott will be able to hold his own and pick up what’s blocked.
The Patriots have desperately needed a good pass-blocking running back ever since the James White Era came to a close. This is arguably the weakest part of Stevenson’s game, so Elliott has a clear path to the field on third downs. Anyone that knows anything about fantasy football knows that targets are far more valuable than carries, and the Patriots love to throw to the running back. Elliott isn’t going to receive James White’s entire workload – Stevenson is far too good of a receiver to be completely sidelined in passing situations – but he’ll definitely ease Stevenson’s burden.
Let’s also assume that Stevenson and Elliott get 60% and 30% of the team’s rushing touchdowns, respectively (the remaining 10% will go to Pierre Strong or Kevin Harris). This means that Rhamondre Stevenson will likely finish the season as the fantasy football RB15-18, while Ezekiel Elliott will be a touchdown-dependent flex play with some standalone value in PPR leagues.
Main Photo: Kyle Terada – USA Today Sports
