Music City Musings – Week 4: Cincinnati Bengals
The flailing Titans return to comforting confines to host Joe Burrow and his merry band of Bengals on Sunday. Ryan Tannehill faces his worst nightmare as the memories of his evisceration that January night will be repeatedly invoked. The Bengals are coming off a short week with a victory over the Rams while the Titans look to rebound after a morbid offensive performance in Cleveland. Who will emerge with a .500 record while the other will start to look ahead to the 2024 offseason?
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Bengals Offense vs. Titans Defense
Cincinnati’s offense has gotten off to a sputtering start, which is not a surprise given Joe Burrow’s discomfiture due to injury and early season inconsistencies. Tennessee’s salaciously poor secondary provides a juicy opportunity for a get-right game for the Bengals’ passing attack. Can Zac Taylor’s unit get firing on all cylinders against a clearly stressed defense?
OL vs. DL Matchups to Watch
If there ever was an offensive line off to an even more horrendous start than the Titans, the Bengals might be that unit. However, after two substandard games, they did show flashes of life against the Rams on Monday night. The tackles continue to be an issue even with the big-money signing of Orlando Brown, Jr. As a result of Brown’s signature, it kicked nominal left tackle Jonah Williams to right tackle, an unfamiliar position. The interior has been an utter disaster despite returning all three starters from last season. Left guard Cordell Volson hasn’t been up to snuff as PFF grades him as the second-worst guard in a class of 76 with a 28.4 overall. Veteran center Ted Karras is the highwater scorer, earning a grade of 59.4, which isn’t up to his lofty standards. Perhaps it’s early season jitters with a newish offensive style but the prognosis isn’t ideal, to say the least.
All of which doesn’t bode well given that the Titans’ defensive strength is in the front four. Superstar Jeffery Simmons has been his usual self, dominating the trenches and commanding double teams. Teair Tart, when healthy, has made an impact as well. Denico Autry is impactful as well. The lone weak spot has been Harold Landry, who has been working his way back from an ACL tear last season. He’s been unusually poor, scoring an overall grade of 47 from PFF. It’s surprising that the Titans haven’t been more judicious with reps and given other backups more opportunity. Arden Key has been an effective addition as a pass rusher as well.
Prediction
The battles that will decide the trenches will clearly be on the interior. If the Bengals’ three can hang with the Titans’ fearsome foursome, it will be a long day for the home team.
Skill-on-Skill Matchups to Watch
Obviously, with the line issues and Burrow’s injury, the skill positions haven’t gotten off to the best start. The big three-headed hydra led by the effervescent Ja’Marr Chase has only two touchdowns between them. Tee Higgins hasn’t had the start to his walk year that anyone wanted with only 110 yards and two touchdowns. Tyler Boyd has been steady so far as the primary slot weapon. Yes, the big three get all the attention in the pass game but don’t sleep on Joe Mixon in that area. He’s the primary ball carrier after a turbulent offseason that almost resulted in his departure. Former Vikings tight end Irv Smith, Jr. and Mitchell Wilcox take over the TE1 role after Hayden Hurst left via free agency.
Tennessee’s secondary has taken turns being absolutely terrible, namely, Kristian Fulton being the chief liability. If he isn’t missing games due to injury, he’s been largely horrible, giving up big plays on the regular. He’s been given a mind-blowingly low overall score of 39.8 by PFF. Coach Vrabel called him to the mat after last week’s dismal performance, which isn’t good this early into a walk year. According to PFF, when he’s targeted by an opposing passer, he has given up a perfect passer rating. On the opposite end of the spectrum, Sean Murphy-Bunting and Roger McCreary have been solid so far, save for some untimely pass interference penalties. Safeties Kevin Byard and Amani Hooker have been just average to below average alongside third safety Elijah Molden.
Prediction
There is immense potential for the Bengals to ignite their stagnating offense again if Burrow is protected and healthy against a weakened Titans’ secondary. It’s been proven that Fulton isn’t a true CB1 repeatedly and Chase should have a field day against him. Higgins and Boyd could have monster days as well. Tennessee’s linebackers will have to be on point to combat the always-good Joe Mixon-led rushing attack.
Titans Offense vs. Bengals Defense
Tennessee desperately needs to find its form against a fierce Bengals defense after its horrid performance last week that showcased all its warts. Can they find their stride?
OL vs. DL Matchups to Watch
It’s a tired refrain but the left side of the line has been a massive liability for the Titans. In particular, left tackle Andre Dillard has faced seemingly every top-tier pass rusher and lost every single time. It doesn’t get much better this week as Trey Hendrickson comes to town with a team-leading three sacks. There is potential that he will double his season total in this tilt. Dillard has the second-lowest pass-blocking grade in the entire league from PFF with an astounding 36.1. Left guard Dillon Radunz hasn’t fared much better in that regard, either, scoring a 30.6. The right side has fared tremendously better than their counterparts on the right side. Right guard Daniel Brunskill has fit in seamlessly. The same could be said for right tackle Chris Hubbard after being a late offseason add to the roster.
The Dillard vs. Hendrickson is widely expected to be a blowout in favor of the Bengal so we won’t delve much into that. What will be more interesting is the “Battle of the Hubbards” between the Bengals’ Sam against Tennessee’s Chris. The Titans’ interior will have a heck of a time trying to stop one of the best run-stoppers in the league in the form of D.J. Reader. Defensive tackle B.J. Hill is one of the better at his position as well and has two sacks already.
Prediction
Stalemate on the right side until the whole unit collapses and is rendered ineffectual due to the left side’s incapability to block off anyone with a pulse. Ryan Tannehill is in for a long day at the office as a result.
Skill-on Skill Matchups to Watch
Let’s just say that the Titans’ receiver room doesn’t strike fear in the souls of defensive backs these days. DeAndre Hopkins is still DeAndre Hopkins on most occasions. Treylon Burks is trying to find his way in this league and has the occasional drop here and there. The most consistent receiver is….Nick Westbrook-Ihkine would be an ideal WR5 on any other receiver depth chart. OC Tim Kelly has done a solid job of scheming his weapons open but the line has had a terrible time of things so everything isn’t on time. Tyjae Spears has continued his ascendance from the preseason and is primed for a great rookie season. Tight end Chig Okonkwo hasn’t gotten out of first gear due to inefficiencies in the attack. Derrick Henry has slowed down a smidgen but is still a capable threat.
The Bengals’ back line is full of able veterans and youngsters alike. Cam Taylor-Britt had a rocky first season but looks to be a promising piece going forward. Safety Dax Hill is proving to be a capable replacement for Jessie Bates, who departed for Atlanta in free agency. Hill was an excellent understudy last season before claiming the starting job this year. If there is a weakness that could be attacked in the secondary, it’s aging warhorse Mike Hilton, who has an overall PFF grade of 42.6.
Prediction
The offensive line doesn’t get off to an ideal start and is utterly shambolic (again), forcing the Titans into untenable situations with no end in sight. Tannehill struggles to get the ball out to his playmakers and Kelly cannot adjust as a result.
Weather Report
Sunday’s weather for Nashville projects a high temperature of 88 degrees with a minuscule six percent chance of rain. It’s predicted to be sunny without a cloud in the sky. The humidity is trending towards 55%. Winds are projected to blow in an East by Northeastern direction at six miles per hour. You couldn’t draw up a better weather scenario for football for this one. The elements will not impact these two teams.
Odds and Ends
Tennessee leads the all-time series with a record of 40-37-1. Head coach Mike Vrabel has lost three consecutive matchups against the Bengals, including twice in one calendar year. These two teams are frequently common opponents as they once shared the defunct AFC Central for many years. Cincinnati owns the head-to-head scoreline by a margin of 70-52 in the three contests. Since the Oilers transitioned to the Titans in 1999, Tennessee leads the series 9 to 8. Bengals coach Zac Taylor is 6-2 against the AFC South since taking over the Bengals franchise in the 2019 season.
Uniform
The Titans are 0-1 against the Bengals wearing the all-navy blue combination since the induction of the new uniforms. The Bengals are 3-0 against the Titans in the all-white uniform in that same time frame.
Titans
🚨Wardrobe check:🚨 The #Titans will be decked out in all navy blue — jerseys, britches and socks — in Sunday’s game vs the @Bengals. 👖 #BritchesReport pic.twitter.com/MWmm6ODmFF
— Jim Wyatt (@jwyattsports) September 27, 2023
Bengals
Suitcase also includes a cowboy hat and boots 🤠 pic.twitter.com/E1HidC02kZ
— Cincinnati Bengals (@Bengals) September 27, 2023
Betting
Tennessee is 2-1 against the spread in this young season to date. The Bengals are winless against the spread. Both teams have gone Under, Over, Under in the three games so it’s a push? In the previous three Vrabel-Taylor-coached contests, the margin of victory has been 23.3 to 17.3 in Cincinnati’s favor.
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The Titans are projected to be +2.5 dogs at home with a +115 money line. Cincinnati is a 2.5-point favorite with a money line that is -130. The Bengals could’ve been on “Bad Beats” watch on SVP in consecutive weeks, failing to cover by half a point each time late.
The Over/Under for this game is trending towards 41.5, which might be a tad low given the Titans’ woes on defense and Cincy’s potential offensive proclivities. Zac Taylor’s scoring unit has averaged 21.06 points per game while his stop unit has given up 23.4 points per contest during his tenure.
The weather and Tennessee’s defense are a perfect setup for the over to hit with the Bengals by themselves but stay away from this game as a bettor even in a parlay situation. Tennessee’s offense is too big of a question mark to compete with the Bengals. A better profit can be made elsewhere.
Prediction
CINCINNATI 35
Tennessee 14
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Main Photo Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports
