Stefon Diggs is enjoying a stretch of six straight 1,000-yard seasons paired with six-plus touchdowns. He has managed this feat with two different teams. Can he manage it with a third? What will a move to the Houston Texans do for Stefon Diggs dynasty outlook?
Stefon Diggs Dynasty Outlook
The History
Stefon Diggs was drafted with the Minnesota Vikings fifth-round pick, 146th overall, in the 2015 NFL Draft. Coming out of the University of Maryland, he was seen as a yards-after-catch receiver most effective from the slot. Despite the initial thoughts on him as a prospect, he has found the majority of his success as an outside receiver, spending 70% of his career snaps out wide.
He spent the first five years of his NFL career with the Vikings. He got his first 1,000-yard season in his fourth season but didn’t go under 700 yards or 50 receptions in the three seasons prior. Excluding his rookie season, he had four straight seasons as a top-24 fantasy wide receiver in Minnesota averaging over 14 points per game.
In March of 2020, Diggs would be dealt to the Buffalo Bills where he exploded into the fantasy spotlight. He has spent three of the last four seasons as a top-12 fantasy wide receiver in points per game. In the only non-top-12 season, he was WR13.
Since departing Minnesota four seasons ago he hasn’t averaged less than 16 fantasy points per game. Behind the arm of Josh Allen, he has been top-12 in targets, air yards, and receptions. Three of the four highest correlating statistical categories for fantasy points. Unfortunately, a rather toxic relationship over the last little while between Diggs and the Bills has led to the breakup of one of the best QB/WR tandem’s in fantasy football.
The Situation
Stefon Diggs and the Bills inevitable breakup was completed on April 3 when the Bills dealt Diggs to the Houston Texans for a second-round pick in the 2025 draft. Over the last three seasons, the Bills offense has been one of the highest-scoring, ranking in the top six each season. On the passing side of the ball during those same three seasons, they have ranked in the top 10. This was the optimal situation for a clear-cut WR1 in an offense.
Alas, Diggs is now a Texan joining a very exciting cast and ascending offense with stars like quarterback CJ Stroud, wide receivers Nico Collins and Tank Dell, plus tight end Dalton Schultz. Not to mention the upgrade at running back to Joe Mixon. This begs the question, will the volume remain with Diggs with all this talent around him? If not, can Diggs remain efficient enough with less volume to sustain top-12 or top-24 fantasy wide receiver output? We also can’t ignore the literal age-old thought of him being on the wrong side of age 30.
The Fit in the Offense
The Texans ranked 8th in passing yards per game, 243.6, while ranking 15th in pass attempts per game, 34.1. All targets are not created equal as they are distributed to three different positions. Of 565 targets, 64.8%, or 366, went to the wide receivers in Houston last season. The ninth most among total wide receiver targets in the NFL last season. I believe fantasy managers will be hard-pressed to see Stefon Diggs remain a top-10 target-getter like he was in Buffalo averaging nine targets per game each of his three seasons. Tank Dell and Nico Collins return who equated to 184 of the 366 wide receiver targets. It will be interesting to see how the targets get distributed with such high-end talent at the position.
Yards per route run is one of the key efficiency stats for wide receivers and predicts wide receiver breakouts and declines. Diggs ranked among the top 15 wide receivers in this category from 2019 to 2022. Last season, he ranked 31st with a 2.03 yards per route run. Despite the volume remaining extremely high, the 160 targets are the third highest of his career. Could this be the sign of a beginning decline as Diggs enters his 30s? What will happen if the volume dips plus the dip in efficiency remains?
Current Price
Per KeepTradeCut, Stefon Diggs is currently the WR33 or 85th-ranked player. From a similar player value perspective, he is around Deshaun Watson, Baker Mayfield, Devante Adams, Isiah Pacheco, Javonte Williams, and Travis Kelce. It is a very intriguing location of value as he’s around some prove-it quarterbacks and running backs who aren’t old, but aren’t young. If you are looking for a rookie pick return, the comparable value is late-first or early-second in current and future years.
Stefon Diggs Dynasty Outlook
Stefon Diggs sits in an intriguing spot for a potential return in trade value. It is likely premature to think the decline will be this rapid just because he is 30. However, the drop in efficiency last year and moving to a team where his volume is unlikely to be 150-160 targets like the last four years and could spell the end of his days as a WR1. The fact he will likely be a free agent next year will be something to visit next year. So, what do we do with Stefon Diggs dynasty outlook?
Rebuilding
If you are a rebuilding roster, my motto for players at or over the age of 30 years old is simple. Sell and get younger or grow your asset value. Diggs isn’t doing anything for you at this point to rebuild your roster but loses value as he gets older. If you want the picks, a late-first or early-second, that would be better than keeping him. Some young names valued around him that you could work a deal around and help your rebuild include Christian Watson, Josh Downs, and Jameson Williams, just to name a couple.
Middle of the Pack
If you need a wide receiver to take you to the next level, Stefon Diggs likely can still do that. He may not be a top-12 wide receiver for fantasy any longer, but I can see him still being a mid-to-low top-24 receiver. But free agency could again shift his situation next year. To buy Diggs as a middle-of-the-pack team you need to be certain you are a solid 12-16 point-per-game performer away. Otherwise, Diggs feels like a sell for me. Especially if you could get even a slightly younger player with better upside to move your team ahead. Marquise Brown, Christian Watson, and Javonte Williams are just a couple names that stick out.
Contenders
Stefon Diggs could have been an anchor on your roster. He was averaging between 16-20 points per game over the last four seasons. He is a hold for me as a contender because dipping to 12-16 points per game likely won’t burn you too bad. The big boom of 40 or 50 fantasy point games isn’t really Diggs’ thing. You can trust consistency. So even a decline in his overall production isn’t going to bury him as a fantasy asset, especially on a contending team. If someone approaches with intrigue in Diggs with a deal that gives you a chance to gain decent draft capital or get younger with an upside piece. I wouldn’t outright reject it. It’s tough to see his peak career years with the Bills ever becoming a thing again.
Main Image: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
