Kenny Golladay had his first 1,000-yard season in 2018, in what was his second year as a pro. What do you suppose he can do in year three? I’m sure folks in Detroit hope he will be the next coming of Megatron. However, in this article, we’ll look at Golladay through more of an analytical lens. We’ll dissect his measurables, stats, advanced metrics, and supporting cast to assess Golladay’s outlook for 2019.
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Kenny Golladay 2019 Fantasy Football Outlook
Kenny Golladay Primed for His Third Pro Season
Golladay has the talent and pedigree that one might look for in a stud fantasy wide receiver. He’s tall at 6’4″ and runs a 4.5 seconds 40-yard dash, and he is good at making contested catches. On paper, he sounds like the perfect big-play and red-zone threat? Unfortunately, Golladay is a talented receiver on a bad team. While playing with a sub-optimal supporting cast, Golladay has made the best of his situation.
In 2018, on 118 targets Golladay made 70 receptions, for 1,063 yards, and five touchdowns. Those are low-end WR2 numbers. Golladay finished 22nd overall in fantasy points scored by wide receivers last season. While Golladay was able to exceed 1,000 yards in only his second season as a pro, his potential as a red-zone threat has yet to materialize. I have a hard time believing that potential will be reached while playing for the Lions. At least, not while Matthew Stafford is playing quarterback.
The presence of wide receiver Marvin Jones hasn’t helped Golladay in the scoring department either. Jones had five touchdowns in only nine games last season, while Golladay had five touchdowns in 16 games. Jones also scored nine touchdowns while playing 16 games in 2017 with the Lions.
Per Player Profiler, Jones saw an end-zone target share of 54.2 percent to Golladay’s 35.3 percent last season, even though Golladay had a higher contested catch rate, 55.6 percent to Jones 33.3 percent. Evidence that Jones is Stafford’s preferred end-zone target and that Jones’ presence in the offense caps Golladay’s touchdown upside. Furthermore, Stafford has always been a high attempts/high yardage guy. He’s not a highly efficient touchdown thrower by any stretch of the imagination. Stafford’s ineptitude in the end-zone is bound to inhibit Golladay’s touchdown upside.
Kenny Golladay Stymied By His Quarterback
Stafford is your typical strong-armed quarterback with a gunslinger’s mentality. He is good at piling up yards and moving the football between the 20s. However, he is notorious for throwing interceptions in the red zone and during other crucial moments in games. Stafford had a 47.9 percent completion rate in the red zone last season. However, he had better than a 68 percent completion rate across the rest of the field. It seems you can count on Stafford’s receivers for lots of yards and catches but not so much for touchdowns.
Remember all of the yards piled up by Calvin Johnson during his years playing with Stafford. Although, he never really put up the huge touchdown totals you might expect, from the most elite talent to ever play the position. Well, Golladay isn’t even close to the kind of athlete that Megatron was, so let’s not expect him to put up anywhere near Megatron-like stats. [Stats found at NFL.com]
He’s No Megatron but Golladay Does Have Upside for 2019
As stated earlier, Golladay was able to finish 2018 as a low-end WR2. Now, going into year three of his pro career, he should continue to progress as a player. With the coaching staff headed into year two and with all of the returning young talents on the Lions, it would be reasonable to assume a continued progression for the offense as a whole. With that in mind, I could see Golladay moving into the mid-to-upper level WR2 conversation. With a little bit of luck and a few fluke touchdowns, Golladay could even finish as a low-end WR1. However, I wouldn’t bet on that.
The good news is, unlike last year, there isn’t a lot of hype surrounding Golladay leading into this season. According to Fantasy Football Calculator Golladay’s ADP is 47th overall or pick 4.11 in a twelve teamer. If you can land Golladay in the fifth round or later, you will have done well.
Some of the players being drafted in the same range as Golladay are Tyler Lockett, Robert Woods, Kenyan Drake, and Tyler Boyd. While I like Boyd’s 2019 outlook and hope to get some shares of him, I would take Golladay before him in the draft. I would take him over all four of those players. Unless your league awards extra points for big plays and/or touchdowns. In that case, Lockett’s touchdown upside would warrant him being drafted before Golladay. If you draft Golladay, you are drafting him for his pedigree, not his situation.
Per Player Profiler Golladay has a SPARQ-x 118.2 (85th). He grades out well, as far as his metrics go. He has a chance to be the primary receiver on a team that historically has had to pass a lot when playing from behind. His size, speed, and yardage potential make him an ideal target as a WR2 or possibly even a WR1 for those using a zero wide receiver strategy with their first four picks. If you buy into his metrics and are willing to overlook his peripheral hindrance, look for Golladay near the beginning of round five, but buyer beware.
