This French Open is primed for Stan Wawrinka to swoop in and snatch the trophy from under Rafael Nadal’s nose. There, I said it. Wawrinka is doing the very Wawrinka thing of peaking at a Grand Slam. Most importantly for him though, is that very few people have even noticed.
On a soggy Saturday in Paris Wawrinka effortlessly brushed aside clay court dangerman Fabio Fognini to move into the fourth round. The straight set victory was his third of the tournament after eliminating Jozef Kovalik and Alexandr Dolgopolov in his first two rounds and the confidence he is showing should be a warning to the rest of the field.
“Doesn’t matter if we talk about me or not”
Stan Wawrinka
Given the tennis world’s obsession with the “Big Four” it is easy to forget that Stan Wawrinka has won three Grand Slam’s in the last three years. Most impressive is his record in Slam finals. While Andy Murray has squandered eight of his eleven finals, Wawrinka’s record is squeaky clean. Three victories from three matches suggests a level of mental fortitude that we probably don’t give the Swiss star credit for.
So far all the signs at this year’s French Open are pointing to another journey deep into the second week. Nine sets played, nine won. Yet, the focus has still been diverted away from him. Rafael Nadal has, for obvious reasons, taken the lion’s share of the media limelight but he is not alone. Dominic Thiem has attracted plenty of understandable attention while the “Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic are back… oh wait, no they are not” narratives continue to rumble on. As for world #3 Stan Wawrinka? Minimal fuss.
Wawrinka himself was more than happy to address the lack of attention he receives. In an interview with Tennis World USA he said “For me, doesn’t matter if we talk about me or not. I’m No.3 in the world. I won three Grand Slams last three years. I know what my level is, I know what I can do.
“I’m focusing on what I have to do to stay as long as possible here, and the rest I really don’t mind. Whether I’m part of the favourites it doesn’t matter at all. I know exactly what I have to do in order to win a Grand Slam.”
How likely is a Stan Wawrinka versus Rafael Nadal final?
Few would argue that a Stan Wawrinka versus Rafael Nadal final is a distinct possibility the way the draw is playing out. Wawrinka will next face one of home favourites, Gael Monfils or Richard Gasquet, but the wet weather on Saturday means he will have to wait until Sunday to find out his opponent. Given that both are returning from injury lay-offs, the lack of rest day will play into Wawrinka’s hands kindly.
Wawrinka will have little bother dismantling a big server in the quarter-finals, be it Kevin Anderson or Marin Cilic. Seeding would denote that either Murray or Kei Nishikori would face him in the semi-finals but with lingering doubts about both, Stan is the favourite to reach his second French Open final.
In Nadal’s half of the draw it is going to take something remarkable, most likely from either Dominic Thiem or Novak Djokovic to halt his charge to the final. Given his destructive 6-0, 6-1, 6-0 over Nikoloz Basilashvili it is tough to see either stopping him.
Why Stan Wawrinka can definitely stop Rafael Nadal
So with a perfectly plausible Wawrinka versus Nadal final ahead of us how can Wawrinka possibly win? For starters you can argue that Wawrinka is mentally tougher than Nadal. He said himself in the interview that he knows what he needs to do to win a Grand Slam and, given his record in finals, it would be remiss to dispute that.
Nadal is also clearly in a strong headspace at the moment but the fact that the weight of expectation is on him could take its toll. La Decima anyone? Before this tournament you would be pressed to find any tennis fan who rationally believes Nadal is not the clear favourite for the title. That has not changed, and will only get stronger if he reaches the final. That is a lot of expectation for one set of shoulders.
Another positive for Wawrinka is simply that he always delivers in finals. It is perhaps his strongest characteristic as a player. On recent evidence you cannot say the same of Nadal. At the Australian Open he played well for three of the five sets but his performance was erratic. That simply will not work against a peaking Wawrinka, whose destructive groundstrokes have dismantled him before in a Slam final – the 2014 Australian Open.
Finally there is the small matter of the clay. Obviously Rafael Nadal is the undisputed King of Clay and the greatest player to ever grace the surface. Wawrinka also has a decent record on the red dirt though, demonstrating his prowess on it during the 2015 Australian Open final when he shocked Novak Djokovic. He is also part of the small group of players to have beaten Nadal on clay – two years ago at the Rome Masters.
All the signs are there that Wawrinka is ready to take home Grand Slam number four. Luckily for Stan no one has noticed yet – and that is just the way he likes it.
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