In many ways, this is the million-dollar question: Who will lift the coveted golden trophy on Centre Court on Sunday, the 16th of July?
If form this year is anything to go by, there can only be two front-runners: Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal. Their comebacks to the top of the game have rocked the world of tennis, with Federer winning his 18th Grand Slam at the Australian Open in January, and Nadal claiming a record-breaking 10th French Open title just this past week. But which one of the two has the edge on grass? Whose preparation was better? And who has the greater mental toughness to get through another grueling fortnight of arguably the most exciting tennis tournament in the world? Let’s find out.
Form
Nadal’s form on clay this season has been stupendous. In five clay court tournaments, including the French Open, he lost only once. He won the French Open having only lost 35 games all tournament. Only Bjorn Borg had a better record in terms of games lost at the French Open in 1978, where he lost 32 games. If he can take his clay court form to the grass courts at SW19, it is difficult to see how anyone could stop him.
Federer, on the other hand, last played a competitive match on the 2nd of April, where he beat Nadal in the Miami Open final. Federer’s form prior to his break was also incredible. He surprised everyone by winning the Australian Open and then going on to do the “Sunshine Double,” winning Indian Wells and Miami ATP 1000 tournaments. Faster surfaces like grass suit his game, but perhaps he has given himself too much of a break going into the grass court season, which could haunt him come the start of Wimbledon.
Wimbledon Record
Federer undoubtedly has the edge over Nadal in terms of his record on grass, both in terms of Wimbledon titles and their own head to head record. Federer has won seven titles at SW19, equaling Pete Sampras’ record, and has reached the final on ten occasions. Last year, Wimbledon was the last tournament Federer played in what was an injury-hit year, but he still managed to reach the semifinal, losing to Milos Raonic in five sets. Federer has never missed Wimbledon, and is adored by the crowd at SW19. He will look to use this to his advantage, no matter who he plays.
Nadal also has a good record on grass. He has reached the Wimbledon final on five occasions, claiming two titles, including THAT incredible 2008 final win against Federer. But Nadal has struggled at Wimbledon recently. He was forced to pull out due to a wrist injury last year, and has failed to make it beyond the fourth round since his loss to Djokovic in the 2011 final. He seems to struggle against players who hit the ball really flat and who possess a big serve. This could be seen through his losses to Lukas Rosol in 2012 and Nick Kyrgios in 2014.
Game plans
Both players appear to have adjusted their game plans to become more aggressive going into points, looking to finish points off quicker. This makes it very close to call when it comes to the Wimbledon grass.
Federer made no secret of this strategy prior to winning his latest Wimbledon triumph in 2012. The appointment of coach Ivan Ljubicic surprised some, but Ljubicic was a fine serve-and-volleyer himself, and has since helped Federer improve his tactics of finishing points early to conserve precious energy. Federer’s serve has always been a major weapon of his, and Ljubicic has, thus far, been the perfect man to help Federer maintain a good first serve percentage, ensuring that he puts his opponent on the back foot from the start of the point. If Federer is to win Wimbledon, his serve must be on point.
Nadal has also adopted a more aggressive approach to his game. Speaking after his “La Decima” win on the Court Philippe Chatrier, he said that aggression and a high intensity is and will always form a part of his game plan. If he can channel the aggression that he exhibited so well during Roland Garros, he is the favorite to win. There’s no doubt about that. Physically and in terms of shot consistency, he has the edge over Federer if he gets his game plan right and forces Federer into the net often enough.
Prediction
Choosing between the two is almost like having to choose a favourite son or daughter. It’s an unenviable task. Both Federer and Nadal are incredible champions who deserve all of the accolades and respect that they receive. This year’s Wimbledon could be the tournament that we are treated to another memorable encounter between these two giants of the tennis world, and as tennis fans, let’s hope this will be the case. If Nadal remains injury-free and he gets his gameplan right, he will win Wimbledon. At the moment, there is no other player who can compare in terms of defence, versatility, and consistency. However, if Nadal once again finds it difficult to adjust to grass and is caught out by a big-serving, big-hitting opponent, then it’s Federer’s for the taking.
