Day five sees the first set of matches from the third round at the 2018 Australian Open. Last Word on Tennis writers, Steen Kirby, Sam Barker, James Cunningham and Yeshayahu Ginsburg give their predictions on a handful of the most competitive matches including Jelena Ostapenko against Anett Kontaveit and Alize Cornet versus Elise Mertens.
Marta Kostyuk vs Elina Svitolina
Steen: Kostyuk is in great form but has played a lot of matches at this point. Svitolina is undefeated to start the season. This could get ugly.
Svitolina in 2
Sam: Not every fairytale can have a happy ending. Marta Kostyuk has been breathtaking and, at just 15, can play with plenty of freedom as she has nothing to lose. That said, Elina Svitolina presumably has a big advantage that she knows at least a little bit about how her countrywoman plays. Regardless of how tight she can get at Slams, this gives her enough of an edge to win.
Svitolina in 3
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James: What a journey it has been for teenager Marta Kostyuk so far. The Ukrainian has overcome the odds to reach the third round at this year’s Australian Open, but Svitolina will prove a step too far for the fifteen-year-old. The world No.5 struggled through her second round match and will want to lay down a marker in this one, to both herself and her opponents.
Svitolina in 2
Yesh: Wouldn’t it be a dream if Kostyuk could win this match? It feels so cruel picking against her. But, honestly, she has no chance against Svitolina.
Svitolina in 2
Jelena Ostapenko vs Anett Kontaveitt
Steen: Jelena Ostapenko shrugged off poor form to make a winning start in Melbourne, it’s anyone’s tournament and she should be better than her Baltic counterpart.
Ostapenko in 3
Sam: Both players had to scrap to get through their respective second round matches and this will be another tight encounter. Both are very young and both are very talented so this will be a match with bundles of winners. Jelena Ostapenko has the experience after her Roland Garros triumph and that tips the balance slightly in her favor.
Ostapenko in 3
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James: This match promises to be a mouth-watering encounter for tennis spectators. Both players have flair and go for their shots no matter what the score is. Jelena Ostapenko is a Grand Slam champion, however, and her experience in similar sorts of tournaments will give her the edge.
Ostapenko in 3
Yesh: Jelena Ostapenko hasn’t quite been at her French Open-winning form since then, but she still has it in her. Kontaveit is talented, too, but she can’t hang with Ostapenko if the Slam champion is on form.
Ostapenko in 2
Kaia Kanepi vs Carla Suarez Navarro
Steen: Kanepi has a pretty good head-to-head record and her form looks good. On, hard courts I’ll back the upset in this veteran battle.
Kanepi in 3
Sam: Despite having a 4-4 head-to-head record these two have not played in four years. It is surprising how well Suarez Navarro has played given the six-match losing streak she held coming to Melbourne but that winning run ends here. The Spaniard will get blown off the court by the red-hot power of Kaia Kanepi.
Kanepi in 2
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James: Kaia Kanepi has defied my predictions in both of the previous rounds, so I hope this one does not jinx it for her. The Estonian has been in wonderful form and comes up against an opponent with a beautiful one-handed backhand in Carla Suarez Navarro. She, however, had to go the distance in her second round match, whereas Kanepi recorded a comfortable straight sets win over Monica Puig. This will be the deciding factor in this match.
Kanepi in 3
Yesh: Suarez Navarro is often underappreciated, but she is very quietly very talented and consistent. She should be able to just wear down Kanepi here.
Suarez Navarro in 3
Luksika Kumkhum vs Petra Martic
Steen: This is Kumkhum’s best slam, Martic is a slight underdog but avoiding qualifying should be an advantage.
Martic in 3
Sam: Luksika Kumkhum is playing irresistible tennis right now and has won her five matches including qualifying without dropping a set. Martic has some good recent experience at Slams after fourth rounds at Wimbledon and the French Open but may struggle in the heat here against a player in career best form.
Kumkhum in 3
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James: Luksika Kumkhum pulled off one of the upsets of the tournament when she beat Belinda Bencic in the second round. She comes up against the more experienced Petra Martic, who had to ground out a tough straight-sets win in her second-round match against Irina-Camelia Begu. Lower-ranked players often get ahead of themselves when they cause a big upset at Grand Slams, and I fear that this will be the case for Kumkhum. The next round will be a step too far.
Martic in 2
Yesh: Kumkhum took tremendous advantage of Bencic’s letdown, and she is a little fortunate to get an opponent like Martic in a Grand Slam third round, but it won’t be enough.
Martic in 2
Alize Cornet vs Elise Mertens
Steen: Mertens hasn’t lost to start the year, that will make things tough for Cornet.
Mertens in 2
Sam: A total contrast of on-court styles as the ice-cool Elise Mertens takes on the emotional but entertaining Alize Cornet. Cornet has already halted one 2018 unbeaten run after defeating Julia Goerges and will be looking for another here. Mertens’ fightback from 5-0 down against Gavrilova in the first set demonstrated a steely grit that will see her advance past her geographical neighbor.
Mertens in 2
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James: I feel guilty when predicting this match, as I wrongly predicted both of these players’ second-round matches. Nonetheless, both have impressed me this week so far, and this could be a good contest between two players who see an opportunity to put a good Grand Slam run together. I am giving Mertens the edge because I think that she has the mental edge over Cornet, but then again, with these two, anything can happen.
Mertens in 3
Yesh: Cornet has her spells of poor play, but I am really impressed by her talent and top-level potential. Mertens will challenge her, but I think the Frenchwoman comes through.
Cornet in 3
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