Round Two begins at ATP Rio on Day 3. The conditions are looking as slow as expected with rally construction, tactics, and stamina being required for players to come through their matches successfully. Which of the players from Day 3 will use those tactics well to reach the quarterfinals?
ATP Rio Day 3 Predictions
Albert Ramos-Vinolas vs Pablo Andujar
Head-to-head: Andujar 8-4 Ramos-Vinolas
Two veteran Spaniards meet here and whilst there is an extensive history between the two, the majority of it is from 2015 and earlier, going back to 2008. Ramos has won the most recent encounters, in 2019 and 2020, and to add further weight to that form, both were on clay. The South American conditions have suited Ramos-Vinolas of late–his final appearance in Cordoba two weeks ago attests to that–and to my mind he is the most likely victor on all known form.
Prediction: Ramos-Vinolas in 2
Fernando Verdasco vs Federico Coria
Head-to-head: first meeting
Verdasco seems to be doing well at playing into some kind of fitness level and a quality win in the opening round will help him greatly. The veteran Spaniard was able to string a couple of wins together in Buenos Aires which gives one confidence that, physically, he is able to come through such an ordeal. Coria, though, will be a tough nut to crack. The Argentine crushed defending champion Cristian Garin in the opening round. If he continues that form then he will lull Verdasco into going for too much and making enough mistakes to allow Coria to pick up the pieces.
Prediction: Coria in 3
Pedro Martinez vs Diego Schwartzman
Head-to-head: First meeting
Much of the outcome of this match will depend upon how well Schwartzman has recovered from his run to the final in Buenos Aires last week. Schwartzman very much depends upon his physical ability to get around the court and chase balls down. To my mind he can get tired off long runs of matches, but he should have had enough rest between Sunday’s final and this matchup. If that is the case he should defeat Martinez. The Spaniard is a very good clay courter with a winning record on tour on the dirt but Schwartzman out-does the Spaniard in these conditions with his service game hold percentage and receiving games won both above average, and most importantly, better than Pedro Martinez.
Prediction: Schwartzman in 2
Pablo Carreno Busta vs Fabio Fognini
Head-to-head: Carreno Busta 7-1 Fognini
The head-to-head record is constructive to shape our thinking in this match, but it isn’t to be replied upon solely to make a judgment. It was actually 7-0 to Carreno Busta until their last encounter so Fognini has at least worked out a way to answer the Spaniard’s game. Carreno Busta is, of course, a top player on all surfaces, but his clay record is superb with an 81% win rate. The most likely result from my perspective is for the pattern of Spanish dominance to continue. Carreno Busta’s all-round game and consistency should be too much for the Italian.
Prediction: Carreno Busta in 2
Main Photo from Getty.
