Despite it being an ATP 250, the Gijon quarterfinal matches are stacked with some of the biggest stars in the game. Dominic Thiem and Andy Murray continue to impress in their injury comebacks, while top seeds Andrey Rublev and Pablo Carreno Busta are safely through. As throughout the week, we will be offering up our prediction’s on the day’s play. So, who will make the semifinals?
ATP Gijon Quarterfinal Predictions
Dominic Thiem vs Francisco Cerundolo
Head-to-head: First meeting
The Thiem resurgence keeps on gathering momentum. The former #3 is into a fourth quarterfinal of 2022, and is getting closer and closer to the form that made him one of the best players on the planet. After decimating Joao Sousa 6-2 6-0, Thiem struggled to find his rhythm against Marcos Giron and looked to be in trouble in the second set. The Austrian then found his form when he needed it, and from 4-3 down he went on to win the next nine games to secure back-to-back ‘bagel’ sets for the first time in his career.
Cerundolo is having a great season overall. He still needs to adjust to the indoor hard courts, but his big forehand can get him through plenty of matches, as it did against Manuel Guinard. This match will be all about who can get the bigger first strike in, Thiem has a better serve, a better backhand and more variety – and a better forehand too. However, it’s not clear how Thiem will play after the way he started against Giron. Thiem’s confidence is growing and he has all the tools for this matchup, and I think he’ll get through in three tight sets.
Prediction: Thiem in 3
Pablo Carreno Busta vs Arthur Rinderknech
Head-to-head: First meeting
This should be a close encounter. Rinderknech made an emphatic start to the year but trailed off for quite a while. However, the Frenchman is finishing his year very strong now, with a third consecutive quarterfinal. It’ll take a good performance from a very good player to beat him right now, as his big serve and powerful groundstrokes are tough to deal with in these fast indoor conditions.
Carreno Busta’s form has fallen away somewhat recently. The Montreal champion lost to Marc-Andrea Huesler in the first round of Sofia, though the Swiss did go on to grab his first ATP title there. The second seed has played some sensational tennis this week, and he’ll be keen to finish his year strong with a good showing this week. I can definitely see this match going the distance–both can hit big and retrieve well, and it’s likely to come down to resilience and the willingness to grind out points–which Carreno Busta does better.
Prediction: Carreno Busta in 3
Andy Murray vs Sebastian Korda
Head-to-head: First meeting
Murray struggled his way past Pedro Cachin, who may well have won if it weren’t for a dreadfully played tiebreak in the first set. Despite this, his level against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina was exceptional and some of the best tennis we’ve seen from the Scot this year. He may not be able to move quite as well as before, but he’s still go all the shots in his repertoire.
Korda soundly beat Jaume Munar in the first round, and then came back from a set down to beat Roberto Bautista Agut in a brutal match. This is a great win for the young American as the Spaniard is never easy to beat. Korda should theoretically do well in these conditions – he’s got a big serve and can hit huge off both wings. I think he’ll have too much power for Murray, who will be feeling the effects of his battle with Cachin. The former #1 will not go down without a fight and I can see it being another titanic tussle, but the youngster should prevail.
Prediction: Korda in 3
Andrey Rublev vs Tommy Paul
Head-to-head: Rublev 3-1
This match promises to be a thriller. The last three of their encounters went the distance, with Paul winning their last meeting in 2021. Rublev has had an up-and-down season, and would’ve been disappointed not to have reached the Astana final last week, losing a tight match to Tsitsipas in the semis. The Russian struggled his way past Ilya Ivashka, and will need to pick things up for this quarterfinal.
Paul has probably been one of the better players of 2022, racking up a huge amount of wins across various surfaces. The movement is top notch, and there’s a good deal of power in his groundstrokes and serve nowadays. On another surface, I’d really like his chances here. However, Rublev is great on the indoor courts as the ball doesn’t bounce too high, so the ball often sits up perfectly for him to crush the ball, which can be tough to retrieve with the speed of the surface.
Paul’s retrieval skills and all-court game are a good way to cause Rublev problems and I can see the American taking a set. However, Rublev is electric when he’s on form and I can see him closing this one out with his significant power advantage.
Prediction: Rublev in 3
Main Photo from Getty.
