Day 1 of the 2023 Australian Open sees the talents of Denis Shapovalov and Sebastian Korda being put on display in Melbourne. We have predictions for every men’s and women’s first round match at the first Grand Slam of the season, and complete tournament coverage of the Happy Slam.
Denis Shapovalov vs Dusan Lajovic
Damian Kust: Lajovic declined a lot last year, only doing well in clay-court Challengers. While Shapovalov can sometimes hit himself off the court, it’s likely that the pace he gets on his strokes will just end up being too much for the Serbian in these conditions. Shapovalov in 3
Shane Black: Denis Shapovalov reached the quarterfinals at this event last year. The fast courts play perfectly into the hands of his ripping lefty forehand. I do not think the 32-year-old Dusan Lajovic has the weapons to beat Shapovalov in a five-set match. Shapovalov in 4
Jakub Bobro: Shapovalov played his best tennis in Australia last season before going on to struggle for most of the year. The Canadian had a decent start in Adelaide but will he be able to handle the pressure of defending a quarterfinal here. Luckily for him, Lajovic is far from the toughest opponent on hard courts. Shapovalov should advance here though I would not be surprised if the match turns into a rollercoaster. Shapovalov in 5
Sebastian Korda vs Cristian Garin
Damian: Korda made the final in three of his last four ATP Tour events. If he can serve like he did in Adelaide, he can be a huge threat to go deep in the Australian Open. He’s on fire right now and it’s very hard to imagine an out-of-form Garin putting an end to his run, especially on a rather fast hard court.
Korda in 3
Shane: Sebastian Korda started his season with a run to the Adelaide final. His serve is progressing nicely and should be an asset going forward. I do not think Garin has the consistency to break through the young American. Korda in 4
Jakub: Korda could cause some issues in this draw if he brings his level from Adelaide. The 22-year-old reached his third final since October, this time narrowly losing out to Novak Djokovic. After struggling for the majority of 2022, Garin started this year at a Challenger in Noumea, reaching the semifinals without a particularly impressive win. Korda should be winning this. Korda in 3
Tomas Martin Etcheverry vs Gregoire Barrere
Damian: Etcheverry seems to be upping his hard-court game a bit, which was probably always a matter of time given his very heavy forehand. Is he already at a level where he can defeat Barrere? It’s not impossible, but the Frenchman has the tools to rush him and maintain control over the matchup.
Barrere in 4
Shane: Tomas Martin Etcheverry and Gregoire Barrere have a major opportunity to reach the second round in Melbourne. Both men were major factors on the Challenger Tour last season. I believe Etcheverry has the more complete game and will be able to dictate the flow of this match. Etcheverry in 4
Jakub: wo of the best players on the Challenger Tour last season, though thriving in completely different conditions. Etcheverry, largely a clay courter, has had a decent start to the season though. The Argentine comes in with a couple of wins from Adelaide qualifying under his belt, albeit over opponents ranked outside the Top 250. Barrere, who thrived on French indoor hard, has had a mixed start to the season. The Frenchman is 3-2, including a win over John Isner but also losses to Rinky Hijikata and Constant Lestienne. This match could go either way but I will lean toward Barrere here. Barrere in 4
Francisco Cerundolo vs Guido Pella
Damian: In his comeback at Montevideo last year, Pella got a nasty draw (Cerundolo’s younger brother, Juan Manuel) but looked very competitive. It’s going to be a little tougher for him on a hard court probably and as he hasn’t played since, it’s not like the rust is completely shaken off yet either.
Cerundolo in 4
Shane: Argentines Francisco Cerundolo and Guido Pella will square off with massive implications on the line. Cerundolo had a career year in 2022 but ended the year in poor form. That said, he showed his hard-court prowess by reaching the semifinal at the Miami Masters. I believe he will be able to break down Pella in this five-set match. Cerundolo in 4
Jakub: Cerundolo is far from a seed-level player on hard courts but has been given one of the easiest draws. The 24-year-old was winless in the United Cup but Pella has played one match since October 2021. The 32-year-old came back in Montevideo last November with a straight-set loss to the other Cerundolo, Juan Manuel. I expect a low level here from Pella and for Cerundolo to manage his way through the match. Cerundolo in 4
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