After an impressive comeback title from Carlos Alcaraz in Buenos Aires, the Golden Swing moves on to the ATP Rio Open, a 500-level event, where the Spanish world #2 will once again be the man to beat. As always, we here at LWOT will preview and predict every match, including Dominic Thiem vs Thiago Monteiro. But who will come out on top?
ATP Rio De Janeiro Day 1 Predictions
Alex Molcan vs Joao Fonseca
Head-to-head: first meeting
16-year-old Joao Fonseca, the brightest talent in Brazilian tennis at the moment, will be making his ATP-level debut here. The Brazilian has had a sudden change of opponent after the withdrawal of Federico Coria. Fonseca, who reached to the final of the Australian Open boys’ doubles, will now face ninth seed Alex Molcan.
The Slovak took Felix Auger-Aliassime to five set in the secound round at Melbourne Park, but has struggled otherwise, losing all four matches he has played including last week to Dominic Thiem. Molcan really should be winning here but Fonseca could pull off the best victory of his young career.
Prediction: Molcan in 3
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Laslo Djere vs Facundo Bagnis
Head-to-head: Bagnis 1-0 Djere
Laslo Djere, the 2019 Rio champion who beat Dominic Thiem, Casper Ruud, and Felix Auger-Aliassime on that run, is 6-4 for the year so far in 2023. The Serb was the only player to take a set off Carlos Alcaraz in Buenos Aires last week and has played solid tennis all round, but has just one quarterfinal appearance to show for it.
Facundo Bagnis, a qualifier here in Rio, beat Joao Reis Da Silva and Yannick Hanfmann to get to the main draw. The 32-year-old is looking to get past the first round at this tournament for the first time since 2014. Djere’s recent level seems higher and he has also had better results in Rio in the past, so the 27-year-old is the favorite for me.
Prediction: Djere in 2
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Lorenzo Musetti vs Nicolas Jarry
Head-to-head: first meeting
With a 5-3 record so far in 2023, the season, Lorenzo Musetti has been rather disappointing, not least because four of those five wins against number two opponents at the ATP Cup. Last week in Buenos Aires, the Italian beat Pedro Cachin but lost to Juan Pablo Varillas in the quarterfinals.
Nicolas Jarry, meanwhile, had a very strong run at the Australian Open, qualifying and beating Miomir Kecmanovic to reach the second round. The Chilean impressed in Rio qualifying, dropping just eight games in wins over talented Argentines Camilo Ugo Carabelli and Juan Manuel Cerundolo. On current form, Musetti could be in trouble here.
Prediction: Jarry in 3
Main photo credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
