We have two blockbuster men’s semifinal matches awaiting us at Wimbledon this year. At one point, neither Carlos Alcaraz nor Daniil Medvedev seemed to love the grass. But one of them will be a Wimbledon finalist this year. Which one will it be, though? Our writers, as always, share their thoughts on the match. Predicting this match are Damian Kust, Jordan Reynolds, Andreas Pelekis, Manuel Traquete, and Jakub Bobro. We also have predictions for the other semifinal, between Novak Djokovic and Jannik Sinner Who do you think will win?
Wimbledon Men’s Semifinal Predictions
Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev
Damian:
This is the more exciting of the two semifinals. When Alcaraz beat Medvedev at Indian Wells, he serve-and-volleyed constantly out wide and got a number of easy putaways. This pattern should be very effective here too and Eubanks has already managed to utilize it in the fourth round. Alcaraz also has the ability to lure Medvedev out of his comfortable footwork patterns and move him up and down the court. The Russian is way better on grass than most people think, but there’s a big matchup advantage here that the World No. 1 will be trying to exploit and should be successful.
Prediction: Alcaraz in 4
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Jordan:
A glance at the quarterfinal results would make Alcaraz the heavy favourite for this one. Medvedev was just a tiebreak away from losing to Christopher Eubanks, while Alcaraz won in straight sets against fellow young star Holger Rune. Alcaraz has also been the second favourite among most since before the tournament started. But I am going with Medvedev here.
The 2021 US Open champion is the master at redirecting pace with his flat shots with short swings, which will trouble Alcaraz far more then their match in Indian Wells that Alcaraz won. I think that trajectory from Medvedev will shock him at this point in his grass court development. It will also be interesting to see how Alcaraz deals with Medvedev’s deep return position. The Spaniard is a very capable volleyer, but is certainly not used to regularly serving and volleying. I feel this match will be remembered as an important learning curve for Alcaraz that will help him on grass in future.
Prediction: Medvedev in 4
Andreas:
Alcaraz was simply too good against Rune, serving well, and using his foot speed to his advantage. He was able to attack Rune’s weaknesses and took advantage of any opening such as in the first set tiebreak of the match. Medvedev didn’t play great in his match against Eubanks, but found a way to counterattack against the American’s deep and effective groundstrokes.
Reflecting on their last meeting, Alcaraz destroyed Medvedev 6-3 6-2 by exposing Medvedev’s very repetitive style of play. Alcaraz hit countless wide serves to expose Medvedev’s deep return, allowing him to win countless free points by hitting to the open court. The Spaniard also hit drop shot after drop shot, constantly moving Medvedev and putting him into uncomfortably positions. Ultimately, it could be a similar situation on Friday. Alcaraz is full of confidence and won’t be afraid to craftily intertwine risky strategies into his game plan. Look for the Spaniard to make his first Wimbledon final, setting up an epic showdown against Novak Djokovic.
Prediction: Alcaraz in 3
Manuel:
Both players are having by far their best ever career run on grass and also playing their best ever tennis on the surface. When they played here two years ago, Medvedev won in very straightforward fashion but things are very different now; Alcaraz is the World #1 and looks ominous on the court at times. If Medvedev is serving well it should be a very tight affair with tiebreaks.
Prediction: Alcaraz in 5
Jakub:
Now winning ten straight matches on grass, Alcaraz continues to impress. The Spaniard closed out Holger Rune in three tight sets, his forehand once again looking like a sublime weapon on a faster surfaces. He now faces one of the best movers in the game right now. Medvedev battled past Christopher Eubanks in five sets, so Alcaraz enters the match fresher. I expect a very close match ultimately going the way of the top seed.
Prediction: Alcaraz in 5
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
