No doubt one of the biggest stories at the ATP Madrid Open this week is the return of two-time defending champion Carlos Alcaraz making his first European clay court appearance in 2024. Having just come back from injury, can the Spaniard find some good form quickly to make it a trio of titles in the Spanish capital? As always, we here at LWOT will also offer our predictions for every match on the slate for Day 3. We split them between this and three other articles–featuring Alexander Zverev vs Borna Coric, Holger Rune vs Mariano Navone, and Taylor Fritz vs Luciano Darderi.
ATP Madrid Day 3 Predictions
Sebastian Baez vs Luca van Assche
Head-to-head: First Meeting
It’s crazy to think during the South American clay court swing this year Sebastian Baez won not one but two titles on the ATP Tour. Fast forward just under two months and he’s on a four-match losing streak, with the last two being on clay. Despite being a Top 20 player now, there’s still a lot to be desired in the Argentine’s game where it’s almost a matter of being able to beat players ranked far lower on the surface but whilst facing those ranked above and around him, he’ll struggle. Thankfully for him, the Frenchman’s game isn’t suited for the clay. Expect Baez to grind van Assche down for a comfortable win in Madrid.
Prediction: Baez in 2
Lukas Klein vs Tommy Paul
Head-to-head: First Meeting
When you consider just how good Tommy Paul has become, you would think playing a guy ranked outside the Top 100 would make for easy work. However, when you consider the American still hasn’t adjusted well to the red stuff and this also is his first clay court match of the year, it’s hard to know what to expect.
Klein hasn’t been in the best of form but with two straight set qualifying wins here backed up with a final set tiebreak win in the first round he at least has a few matches under his belt to bring into this one. A slow start for the world no.16 should be expected but it’s hard to see it resulting in a loss here.
Prediction: Paul in 3
Tallon Griekspoor vs Taro Daniel
Head-to-head: Griekspoor 1-0
Griekspoor is no doubt playing the best tennis of his life right now but his game is far more suited to the faster surfaces where he has had a majority of his success. Thankfully for him, the same can be said about the man from Japan. It won’t be pretty but you can definitely expect Daniel to come out all guns firing and use his forehand to try and hit through the Dutchman. Griekspoor is the more solid of the two so expect him to grind enough unforced errors out of the 31 year old to make the third round.
Prediction: Griekspoor in 2
Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Shevchenko
Head-to-head: First Meeting
It wasn’t too long ago that Carlos Alcaraz won yet another Indian Wells title. Since then he’s played Miami and hasn’t played a match after that due to injury. Having signed up to Monte-Carlo and Barcelona, the now-World No.3 pulled out of both events with many questioning just how serious the condition of his body is in. It does look like the two-time defending champion will play his first European clay match of the year in Madrid, though, which is amazing to see.
With no disrespect to Shevchenko, it’s the perfect comeback match for the 20-year-old with the Kazakh not possessing anything that can harm him. Unless Alcaraz puts in an absolute shocker of a performance, his movement and top spin groundstrokes on this surface are going to be far too much to handle. Expect one of the favorites to win this event to breeze into the next round.
Prediction: Alcaraz in 2
Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey-USA TODAY Sports
