Sixteen second-round matches take place on Friday at the ATP Mutua Madrid Open. The winners of four of the last five editions, Carlos Alcaraz and Alexander Zverev, are also in action. As always, we here at LWOT will offer our predictions for every match on the slate for Day 3. We split them between this and three other articles–featuring Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Shevchenko, Holger Rune vs Mariano Navone, and Taylor Fritz vs Luciano Darderi. But who will advance?
ATP Madrid Day 3 Predictions
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Shang Juncheng
Head-to-Head: Fokina 1-0 Shang
These two recently met at the Miami Open where Alejandro Davidovich Fokina won in straight sets, but the match was closer than the scoreline suggests. Fokina’s clay court season has not started as well as he had intended, with only one win in two tournaments. But the Spaniard had a good showing here last year, and there is no reason why he can’t repeat that. Shang Juncheng is coming off of an incredible win in his first-round match which lasted close to four hours. The 19-year-old Chinese wild card is very close to the top 100 and it’s a matter of when he gets there. Despite the heroics of Shang in his previous match, I like Davidovich Fokina to win in front of his home crowd.
Prediction: Davidovich Fokina in 3
Ugo Humbert vs Botic Van De Zandschulp
Head-to-Head: Humbert 2-0 Van De Zandschulp
Ugo Humbert has been having a great year so far with two titles already to his name. Humbert made a solid start to his clay court swing by reaching the quarterfinals in Monte Carlo. In theory, the quicker conditions in Madrid should benefit Humbert’s game style, but he has not won a match at this event in three attempts. Botic Van De Zandschulp played a solid match to win his first-round match but he hasn’t beaten Humbert in their previous two meetings. Van De Zandschulp can make this a close match with his serve but the Frenchman has the upper hand in rallies.
Prediction: Humbert in 2
Hubert Hurkacz vs Jack Draper
Head-to-Head: Hurkacz 3-1 Draper
These two played each other earlier this month on the clay courts of Monte Carlo where Hubert Hurkacz prevailed in a third set tiebreaker. Hurkacz is a former quarterfinalist at the Madrid Open and won his first clay court title in Estoril at the beginning of this month. Jack Draper is finding his form with wins coming thick and fast for the 23-year-old. He knows how to play against Hurkacz and the conditions in Madrid will suit his game. This match can go either way but the recent results of Hurkacz on clay and his vast experience in three-setters and tiebreaks makes him the favourite for me.
Prediction: Hurkacz in 3
Alexander Zverev vs Borna Coric
Head-to-head: Zverev 3-3 Coric
Alexander Zverev and Borna Coric have met six times, but this will be their first meeting on clay. Zverev has made a slow start to the clay season with just two wins in four matches. The two-time Madrid Open champion will look to get back to his best level at one of his most successful tournaments. Borna Coric won a tough three sets match in his first round which will give him some confidence against a familiar opponent in Zverev. Coric is defending semifinal points from last year and a loss in the second round will shove him outside the top 50. Borna Coric has enjoyed success in Madrid but isn’t the same player he used to be. Zverev should win this match if he can find his usual first-serve numbers.
Prediction: Zverev in 3
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
