Jannik Sinner will play his first match as the top seed at a Masters 1000 tournament in an action-aced Saturday at the ATP Madrid Open. He won’t be the only Top 10 player in action, with Stefanos Tsitsipas, Casper Ruud, and Grigor Dimitrov among those expected to take to the court. As always, we here at LWOT will be offering our predictions for every match on the slate. We split the rest of the matches between three other articles, featuring Daniil Medvedev vs Matteo Arnaldi, Rafael Nadal vs Alex de Minaur, and Casper Ruud vs Miomir Kecmanovic. So, who will advance?
ATP Madrid Day 4 Predictions
Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Thiago Monteiro
Head-to-head: first meeting
Watching his younger rivals take center stage and earn all the glory was difficult for Stefanos Tsitsipas to stomach. He even fell outside the world’s Top 10 for the first time since 2019 in the first quarter of this season. But he quickly found that golden touch at the start of the clay swing, reaching two successive finals and walking away with his third crown in Monte Carlo. Thiago Monteiro also found his footing after losing five of his last six matches. He has addressed that slide with three wins right from qualifying in Madrid. However, Tsitsipas is hitting the ball with real authority right now. It’s tough to see him make a melee out of this match.
Prediction: Tsitsipas in 2
Jiri Lehecka vs Hamad Medjedovic
Head-to-head: Medjedovic 1-0 Lehecka
Medjedovic hadn’t played a great deal of tennis this year until this week when he had to battle two rounds of qualifying. He came through a nailbiter against Aleksandar Kovaceivc in the opening round. Lehecka has also been missing for a significant portion of the buildup to Roland Garros. In fact, this is the first match on clay since July 2023. He’s been dealing with a reported back injury for a month. With so much uncertainty regarding the Czech’s fitness, Medjedovic might be the man to capitalize on this one.
Prediction: Medjedovic in 3
Ben Shelton vs Tomas Machac
Head-to-head: first meeting
Ben Shelton‘s first taste of this tournament last year resulted in a tight three-set defeat to Jan-Lennard Struff. At the time, it looked like the American had blown his chance, but the big-serving German went on to achieve a Masters 1000 first by reaching the final as a lucky loser. So, looking back, Shelton can be proud of his efforts.
12 months on, he doesn’t have the comfort of a cushy opening match in Madrid. Tomas Machac has been quietly making strides in the rankings and has posted a series of eye-catching results and performances. Shelton will play for the first time since winning the title in Houston almost three weeks ago. But with his improved rally tolerance and self-belief on this surface, he is the slight favorite in this match.
Prediction: Shelton in 3
Jannik Sinner vs Lorenzo Sonego
Head-to-head: Sinner 4-0 Sonego
Sinner and Sonego know each other very well. They have been doubles teammates and have trained together before. But the older of the two Italians just hasn’t figured out the solution in this matchup. In four previous meetings, the Australian Open champion has dominated, losing just one of ten contested sets. As the top seed in a Masters 1000 tournament for the first time, expect Sinner to add even more sheen to an expected victory here.
Prediction: Sinner in 2
Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey-USA TODAY Sports
