It’s safe to say that no one expected these semifinals at ATP Madrid. With Carlos Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner, and Daniil Medvedev starting the week alongside the in-form Stefanos Tsitsipas and Casper Ruud, not a single one of those names finds themselves in the final four.
Instead, we have one semifinal between two men ranked outside the world’s top 30 and another between Andrey Rublev, now the favourite for the title, and American Taylor Fritz on his worst surface. Who do you think will advance to the final?
ATP Madrid Semi-Final Predictions
Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Jiri Lehecka
Head-to-head: Lehecka 1-0
Once upon a time, Felix Auger-Aliassime was one of the best players in the world, and that wasn’t too long ago either. Now, in May 2024, he’s struggled for over a year to find any sort of consistent form, so much so that this is the first time he’s won three matches in a row on this surface in two years at Roland Garros. The problem is, despite making the semifinals at ATP Madrid and no doubt playing his best tennis of the year, we still don’t know how good this level is.
With no disrespect to Nishioka and Mannarino, those are two players on this surface who he should be beating. The impressive win came against recent Barcelona champion Casper Ruud in straights, but even then, it must be said the Norwegian was subpar. Of course, a withdrawal from the best player this year, Jannik Sinner, didn’t help us see the 23-year-old’s level either.
Lehecka, on the other hand, is more of the same. Whilst he was good in his win against former five-time champion Rafael Nadal in the fourth round, it’s fair to say the Spaniard’s best days are long behind him. Then, similarly to Sinner pulling out after the first set in his quarterfinal against Daniil Medvedev, the Russian retired.
It’s going to be a battle of big hitting from both ends, with no doubt first-strike tennis dominating, especially at the altitude of Madrid. Expect a lot of unreturned serves and short rallies despite the surface. Purely because we are yet to see the true level of either of these men, it’s hard to go against the Czech as, in the past few months, he’s easily been the better, more consistent player, especially in rallies where the Canadian has broken down against better players more often than he hasn’t in recent times.
Prediction: Lehecka in 3
Taylor Fritz vs Andrey Rublev
Head-to-head: Fritz 5-3
It’s hard to believe that before Madrid, the Russian not only lost four matches in a row but without a single set won in any of them. To make matters even more worrying, they were all against men ranked outside of the world’s top 30. Now, in the semifinals of Madrid, however, he finds himself as the favorite not only to make the final but also to win the event. Despite struggling in the first set against world number three Carlos Alcaraz, it was great to see the 26-year-old play his best tennis in months in coming back to routinely beat the defending two-time champion in the end with his commanding, aggressive tennis we’ve known to love.
Taylor Fritz has no doubt heavily benefitted from the altitude in Madrid, which has severely aided his serve, as evident with over 80% of first-serve points won in all four of his matches so far this week. Serving this well, he’s a match for anyone in the world, but whether or not he can keep this up is another matter. Rublev is a far better returner than any of Fritz’s previous opponents, and if the Russian can manage to get enough returns back into play, he’s superior off the ground and can dominate the American with better movement and groundstrokes.
If the American has a field day serving, this could be interesting, but I think it’s asking too much, especially against a Rublev who’s evidently found form again. On paper, the winner of this will be a favourite for the title, so no doubt extended pressure might come into play as well.
Prediction: Rublev in 3
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane – USA TODAY Sports
