Daniil Medvedev is the defending champion at the ATP Rome Masters, which is a sentence that still sounds a little ridiculous. But the hard-court specialist pulled it off on clay last year and returns to the Italian capital to seek another trophy. Jack Draper is far from the easiest opponent he could have landed in the opening round though, placing the No. 2 seed under instant upset alert. We split the day’s 16 matches between four articles. The other three articles feature Rafael Nadal vs Hubert Hurkacz, Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Jan-Lennard Struff, and Holger Rune vs Luca Nardi. Who do you think will prevail?
ATP Rome Day 4 Predictions
Tommy Paul vs Aslan Karatsev
Head-to-head: Karatsev 1-0
Aslan Karatsev has just returned to the tour after the injury he suffered in Brisbane at the beginning of the season. He missed 11 set points in the opener against Fabian Marozsan in Madrid, but his standard of play wasn’t horrible. Perhaps this is actually a workable draw for him as while Tommy Paul is still among the best Americans on clay courts, it’s surely not his favorite conditions. You never know which Karatsev shows up but if he plays well, he has the matchup edge here.
Prediction: Karatsev in 3
Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Botic van de Zandschulp
Head-to-head: Auger-Aliassime 2-1
Felix Auger-Aliassime made the final in Madrid and almost won it, but it’s a bit of a controversial run with the three consecutive walkovers or retirements he received. But you can only beat who is in front of you and the Canadian should take plenty of confidence from that run. However, the conditions in Rome don’t suit his game like the altitude in the Spanish capital did. What might help him out is that Botic van de Zandschulp seems pretty lost at the minute and while this is already a solid run for him, he hasn’t impressed along the way.
Prediction: Auger-Aliassime in 2
Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Head-to-head: Etcheverry 2-1
The consistency Thiago Seyboth Wild has produced in ATP 1000 events this year is something new for the Brazilian and he made the third round at Indian Wells, Miami, and Madrid. Now he’s got the chance to get that far in Rome as well, but it won’t be easy. Tomas Martin Etcheverry is still rock solid, and you have to be ready to handle that heavy forehand. Seyboth Wild is way more up and down, but recently he’s producing his peak level somewhat regularly. That ceiling of his might be higher than Etcheverry’s.
Prediction: Seyboth Wild in 3
Jack Draper vs Daniil Medvedev
Head-to-head: First meeting
It’s a well-known fact that Daniil Medvedev never defends his titles, and it would be an incredible twist if he did it at an event that no one expected him to win in the first place. His fitness is under a question mark here though after a retirement in Madrid due to a hip injury. We’ll see if that remains an issue, but this isn’t a good draw anyway. Jack Draper has been looking for a signature win like this and he’s often showing that “Brits don’t like clay” is an outdated stereotype. It’s a nasty opener for Medvedev, we’ll see if he pulls through.
Prediction: Draper in 3
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
