The women’s third round begins on Day 5 of Wimbledon, and we are starting to get to crunch time. Players are making names for themselves, upsets are brewing, and the draw is shaping up. Who will reach Round 4? As always, we here at LastWordOnTennis share our predictions on all eight matches. We split Friday’s matches between this and a separate article–featuring Coco Gauff vs Sonay Kartal. Predicting these matches are Jordan Reynolds, Damian Kust, and Nurein Ahmed. Who do you think will win?
Wimbledon Day 5 Predictions
Emma Navarro vs Diana Shnaider
Jordan:
This promises to be a fascinating match. Shnaider has won her last seven matches on grass, while Navarro was sublime in her victory against Naomi Osaka in the last round. Overall, Navarro’s athleticism and consistency is a playing style that is capable of disrupting Shnaider, but this is likely to be a tight battle.
Prediction: Navarro in 3
Damian:
They already played a couple of tough battles against each other recently with Shnaider coming out on top both in Paris (WTA 125) and in Bad Homburg. It’s always tight and their history is in no way a guarantee that the Russian will win again. But since it’s such an even matchup, I also don’t see a reason to avoid giving Shnaider that slight nod here.
Prediction: Shnaider in 3
Nurein:
This will be a rematch from Bad Homburg where Navarro was seemingly on her way to victory until Diana Shnaider’s medical timeout disrupted her momentum. Now the American is coming off one of her best wins on her Centre Court debut against Naomi Osaka. I’ll take her to exact revenge.
Prediction: Navarro in 3
Madison Keys vs Marta Kostyuk
Jordan:
Keys was utterly dominant in her last match, and a deep run in London is certainly possible. Kostyuk was broken eight times in her three-set battle against Daria Saville in the last round. Affording so many opportunities to Keys is something she will not get away with again.. Even if the Ukrainian improves her level from the last match, I still expect Keys to progress.
Prediction: Keys in 2
Damian:
Kostyuk against Saville was a fun mess, but a mess after all. The Ukrainian showed considerable mental strength to stay in the event and can shrink the court well. Keys is really one of the favorites to even win the whole thing here and she would miss a massive opportunity if she lost this early. She’s been playing well enough of late to keep going.
Prediction: Keys in 2
Nurein:
It’s a miracle how Kostyuk pulled off that comeback against Daria Saville in the second round. But she’ll not be getting any gifts from the power-hitting Keys who will punish any lapses in concentration, something that the Australian didn’t do when she had the match in her pocket.
Prediction: Keys in 2
Paula Badosa vs Daria Kasatkina
Jordan:
Badosa is likely to need a perfect display of powerful hitting to overcome Kasatkina. The recent Eastbourne International champion won her last match 6-0 6-0, and has never looked better on grass. Her consistent and complete game makes her the favorite to win again.
Prediction: Kasatkina in 2
Damian:
That third quarter of the draw is now incredibly open and everyone is mostly looking at these two and Raducanu. Kasatkina just won Eastbourne and has been barely dropping games this week, but Badosa is a real world-class opponent. I’ll give a slight edge to the Russian, who might be a little behind on power, but is known for utilizing her variety beautifully on natural surfaces.
Prediction: Kasatkina in 3
Nurein:
Kasatkina is emerging as genuine dark horse at this tournament. Winning Eastbourne gave her so much confidence and self-belief after stalling in her last few finals. Badosa is not a bad a grass-court player and this for me is the standout third-round match at the tournament. Heart says Badosa wins this, but my head says Kasatkina will sneak into the second week.
Prediction: Kasatkina in 3
Emma Racudanu vs Maria Sakkari
Jordan:
This will be a big test of Sakkari’s mentality, which has often been her biggest issue in the past. The crowd will be firmly behind Raducanu, who was very impressive against Elise Mertens in the last round. On Sakkari’s least favourite surface, I think it will be tough for her to overcome the Briton.
Prediction: Raducanu in 2
Damian:
The British pressure might start piling up on Raducanu soon with how open her quarter is. But it won’t be exaggerated if keeps playing the way she did against Mertens. Sakkari is in the Top 10, although her recent Slam runs were usually quite weak and she’s not at her best on grass. It’s not unreasonable to consider Raducanu the favorite here.
Prediction: Raducanu in 3
Nurein:
Given Sakkari’s struggles at Grand Slam level in recent years, this match has an upset alert written all over it. Raducanu is enjoying her best run of form since rejoining the Tour in January and she’ll get every spectator on Centre Court cheering on for her.
Prediction: Raducanu in 2
Main Photo Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
