Jessica Pegula’s dramatic comeback against Karolina Muchova at the US Open secured a place in her first Grand Slam final. She will face pre-tournament favorite Aryna Sabalenka, who defeated Emma Navarro in the semifinal. Last year’s final between Sabalenka and Coco Gauff was dramatic, but there are reasons to believe the 2024 US Open women’s singles final could be one of the best.
Why Pegula vs Sabalenka Could Be One of the Great Major Finals
1. They Have Been the best Players Throughout the North American Hardcourt Season
Sometimes, players make surprising runs at Grand Slams without playing breathtaking tennis if the draw opens up. An example was Zheng Qinwen’s route to the Australian Open final at the start of the season. Top players can also get to finals without being at their best throughout the tournament.
Neither of those scenarios applies to Pegula or Sabalenka, who have been the outstanding WTA players since the end of the Olympics. Pegula retained her title at the National Bank Open, playing a superb final set to defeat Amanda Anisimova in the final. Sabalenka, who started her North American hardcourt season early after skipping the Olympics, overcame Pegula 6-3 7-5 the following week in the Cincinnati Open final.
Both players have carried that form into the US Open, dropping only one set each in their opening six matches in New York. Admittedly, the big stage of a major final can affect the level of players. However, if both women find the tennis they have been playing, it will make terrific viewing.
2. Pegula and Sabalenka’s Styles Contrast Perfectly
Sabalenka’s power on a hardcourt is the most devastating in the women’s game when her game flows. She attacks and takes the ball early off both wings, often taking the racket out of her opponent’s hands. Although Pegula is a clean ball striker, she does not possess the same blistering pace as the world No. 2. The American relies more heavily on being consistent from the baseline and grinding out points.
Most of the best rivalries involve one great attacker and one great defender (such as Roger Federer vs. Novak Djokovic), creating the perfect balance on the court. The rallies are unlikely to be too short, but they will not be slow or monotonous. Watching Pegula absorb the intensity of Sabalenka’s hitting and trying to strike herself at the right moments promises to be thrilling viewing.
What both players have added to their games in the last 12 months also enhances this matchup. Sabalenka’s volleys and willingness to come to the net have improved, demonstrated by her 17 net points in two sets against Navarro. Pegula has improved her serve and backhand slice this season. Those factors add to what would already have been an intriguing final.
3. The US Open Conditions are Perfect for the Final
The exciting matchup described before was not fully explored in their Cincinnati Open final a few weeks ago because of the ultra-speedy courts at the tournament in Ohio. Sabalenka’s formidable serve was firing on all cylinders in that match, and the quickness of the court made it extremely difficult for Pegula to get into the rallies on her opponent’s serve. That is not downplaying how well Sabalenka played, but the match was not as entertaining as it could have been.
Courts that are too slow could lead to the opposite problem of the match becoming too much of a baseline battle, making Pegula’s improved serve or Sabalenka’s net game almost irrelevant. Fortunately, the medium-speed US Open conditions should strike the perfect balance. The courts will help the Belarusian with her aggressive groundstrokes and willingness to come to the net while giving Pegula a reasonable chance to defend and redirect her opponent’s pace.
Main photo credit: Mike Frey-USA TODAY Sports
