ATP 500 Tokyo semifinals
Fils – Rune: 30.09.2024 12:30 CEST
H2H: 1-1
Arthur Fils has won four of his last five matches. Two weeks ago, Arthur represented France in the Davis Cup. He lost two matches, and won only one. Fils had his biggest results on clay this season. Here in Tokyo, Fils upset Fritz in the opening round in three tight sets. Fils served well, losing his serve only once in the match. He ended the match by hitting 32 winners with 18 unforced errors. In the second round, Berrettini won the first set 7-6 against Fils, but retired after that. After enduring the pain, following the physio’s check-up, the Italian decided to withdraw to avoid risking a more serious injury. Today, in the quarterfinals, Fils defeated Shelton in three tight sets. It was a great match for both players. Fils failed to close out the match in the second set, after not converting two match points on his serve. In the deciding set, Fils led 4-2, but once again could not hold his serve when it was most important. However, Arthur stayed calm in the tiebreak, and closed out the match comfortably. Around this time last year, Fils played in Shanghai, where he lost against Tommy Paul in the third round of the tournament. Arthur is close to getting into the top 20, so he is hoping for a decent result this week in Tokyo.
Holger Rune has won three of his last five matches. Last week in Hangzhou, Rune was the first seed, but lost his opening match against Uchiyama in straight sets. It was another poor performance from the young Dane, who lost his top 10 status recently. Here in Tokyo, Rune defeated Tabilo in his opening match. Rune struggled in the second set, but other than that, Holger was a better player throughout the first and deciding set. In the 1/8-Finals, Rune defeated Nishioka in straight sets as we predicted. He lost his serve only once, which was in the second set, but broke back immediately, and closed out the match easily. Rune was aggressive throughout the whole match, and ended the match with 26 winners and just 10 unforced errors. Today, in the quarterfinals, Holger defeated Nishikori in three tight sets. After losing the first set 3-6, Holger stepped up his level, and turned the match around. Nishikori was 5-3 up in the deciding set, and even had a match point. Holger turned the set around, and won four games in a row. Last year around this time, Holger played in Beijing, where he lost in the second round against Dimitrov in straight sets.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Rune is the slight favorite in this matchup. We believe that he is a better player than Fils under these conditions. Fils had his biggest results on the clay courts. In the 1/8-Finals, Arthur was on the verge of losing against Berrettini. We believe that Rune will handle the pressure better than Fils, and win this match easily.
That being said, Rune winning is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Holger Rune winning @1.57 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: Andy Abeyta/The Desert Sun / USA TODAY NETWORK
