ATP Masters 1000 Paris 1/16-Finals
Fils – Struff: 30.10.2024 12:30 CEST
H2H: first meeting
Arthur Fils has won four of his last five matches. Last week in Basel, Fils reached the semifinals, where he lost against Shelton in straight sets as we predicted. It was a solid tournament for Fils, who played well throughout the whole week. Here in Paris, Arthur won his opening match against Cilic in tight straight sets as we predicted. Arthur is a top 20 player, so he is hoping for a solid result this week to cement his top 20 status. Last year in Paris, Arthur lost his opening match against Altmaier in straight sets.
Jan-Lennard Struff has lost four of his last five matches. Last week in Vienna, Jan lost his opening match against de Minaur in three tight sets. Here in Paris, Struff won his opening match against Musetti in straight sets. So far this season, Jan has only six hard-court wins. His biggest result was in Munich, where he won his maiden ATP title. Last year in Paris, Struff lost his opening match against Auger-Aliassime in straight sets.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Fils is the slight favorite in this matchup. Jan-Lennard played well against Musetti, and looked confident on the court. We believe that he will have a decent chance against Fils tomorrow, and that he will at least keep this match tight.
That being said, Fils covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Arthur Fils +2.5 games handicap @1.91 @bet365
Bublik – Rune: 30.10.2024 14:00 CEST
H2H: 1-1
Alexander Bublik has lost four of his last five matches. Last week in Basel, Bublik retired mid-match against Van de Zandschulp in the opening round. Here in Paris, Bublik won his opening match against Fognini in straight sets. Bublik lost his serve at the beginning of the match. However, after that, Bublik stepped up his level, and turned the match around.
Holger Rune has won four of his last five matches. Last week in Basel, Rune reached the semifinals, when he lost against Mpetshi Perricard in straight sets as we predicted. Rune had no answer for Giovanni, and just fumbled under pressure. Here in Paris, Holger won his opening match against Arnaldi in straight sets as we predicted. Rune is looking for a solid result this week, to get closer to the top 10 in the rankings. Last year in Paris, Rune played solidly, and reached the quarterfinals, where he was stopped by Djokovic in three tight sets.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Rune is the big favorite in this matchup, and we agree with that. Bublik is completely out of form, and does not look motivated on the court. On the other hand, Rune loves to play under these conditions, so we expect him to dominate in this matchup. Rune also loves to play in Paris.
That being said, Rune winning in straight sets is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Holger Rune winning 2-0 @1.91 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: Andy Abeyta/The Desert Sun / USA TODAY NETWORK
