World No. 3 Carlos Alcaraz’s chances of staying in the ATP Finals are hanging by a thread. The Spaniard hasn’t been at full capacity in Turin for this season-ending finale, but he has battled hard to remain competitive.
After losing his first group-stage match to Casper Ruud, he responded like a champion, defeating Andrey Rublev in straight sets. However, this win is just the start of his steep climb to stay alive in the ATP Finals.
Next, he faces Alexander Zverev, who has historically had the upper hand. The German holds a 7-5 head-to-head record against Alcaraz, including a victory in their group-stage meeting last year.
However, Alcaraz has closed the gap recently, winning their last two matches. The most notable win came in the Roland Garros semifinal, where the former World No. 1 prevailed in five sets to secure his third Grand Slam title. Nonetheless, Zverev is a formidable opponent on indoor surfaces, with two ATP Finals titles, including the 2021 championship in Turin.
The ATP Finals organizers have scheduled the Friday afternoon match between Alcaraz and Zverev. This timing lets Ruud know exactly what he needs to do before facing Rublev in the evening. The results of these two matches will determine the players who advance to the next stage. Here are the compiled list of scenarios:
- If Zverev beats Alcaraz and Ruud beats Rublev, regardless of the scores, Zverev will top the group, and Ruud will qualify in second place.
- If Alcaraz defeats Zverev and Rublev overcomes Ruud, no matter the scores, Alcaraz will win the group, with Zverev advancing in second.
- Should Zverev win against Alcaraz in straight sets, and Rublev also beats Ruud in two sets, Zverev will lead the group, while the remaining players’ positions will be decided by the percentage of games won.
- If Zverev wins in two sets and Rublev defeats Ruud in three, Zverev will win the group, and Ruud will qualify in second place.
- If Zverev wins over Alcaraz in three sets, and Rublev beats Ruud in two sets, then Zverev wins the group, with Alcaraz qualifying as runner-up.
- If Zverev defeats Alcaraz in three sets and Rublev also wins over Ruud in three sets, Zverev wins the group, and Ruud qualifies in second.
- If Alcaraz beats Zverev in straight sets and Ruud wins in two sets, Rublev will be eliminated, and the standings of the remaining players will be determined by their game-winning percentages.
- If Alcaraz wins over Zverev in straight sets and Ruud defeats Rublev in three sets, Alcaraz will win the group, with Zverev advancing as the runner-up.
- If Alcaraz beats Zverev in three sets and Ruud overcomes Rublev in two, Zverev will win the group, and Ruud qualifies in second place.
- If Alcaraz defeats Zverev in three sets and Ruud also beats Rublev in three sets, Zverev wins the group, and Ruud qualifies second.
Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey-USA TODAY Sports
