The 2024 Davis Cup Finals will be played on indoor hard courts in Malaga, Spain, the tournament serves as the final farewell for Rafael Nadal, one of the greatest players of all time, and a dedicated servant for Spain in Davis Cup, where he only lost one match in singles play over more than a decade. Condensed into a final week at the end of the season, and down to eight teams, this Davis Cup format doesn’t have the same cultural resonance in the sport that the Davis Cup once had, but this year, there is a stacked roster for the finalist nations that should create a number of compelling matches.
The courts in Malaga are expected to play slower than typical indoor hard courts, which creates a bit more opportunity for players who prefer clay, but the best of three format (two singles, and one doubles match), means that singles is still prioritized over doubles when it comes to the matchups.
Team captains have been cagey at times about who they will nominate for each tie, but here is a look at the talent at each nation’s disposal as the Quarterfinals begin on Tuesday.
Italy vs Argentina
Defending Champions Italy boast the world’s best player, Jannik Sinner, who will look to cap off a historic season with a glorious title for his country, Sinner just won the ATP Finals at home in Turin. Sinner isn’t doing all the work by himself, Italy boasts the strongest roster on paper, Lorenzo Musetti and Matteo Berrettini are available for singles. Musetti finished the year strong with an ATP final and a semifinal, his 42 wins on the season were a career best and he reached three ATP finals (losing all three). Berrettini compiled a 34-13 record, in what was a great comeback year in 2024 and he lifted a pair of ATP titles.
For doubles Italy can call on the veteran Simone Bolelli, who is now a doubles specialist, and pairs with fellow top 15 doubles player Andrea Vavassori, it would take a monumental effort to take this team down given both their rankings and form across singles and doubles.
Argentina hope to pull off that miracle on a surface that they don’t prefer, the doubles pairing of Maximo Gonzalez and Andres Molteni is ranked in the top 25 and has achieved a lot as a stable pairing. For singles they have three good, but not quite elite players, Sebastian Baez reached a career high of #18 in 2024, 29-26 on the season, he won two titles, both on clay in South America. He hasn’t won a match since the US Open. Francisco Cerundolo is in slightly better form, 32-30 on the year with a title on clay, the 26 year old is targeting a return to the top 20 soon.
Tomas Martin Etcheverry reached the top 30 for the first time in 2024, the 25 year old was 30-28 on the season with one final. None of these players are in tremendous form at the moment, but going with Cerundolo and Etcheverry for the singles seems like Argentina’s best hope given how poorly Baez has played in recent weeks.
United States vs Australia
A matchup between two legendary Davis Cup nations, who could credibly claim they can win the title in 2024 as well. This is the best matchup of the Quarterfinals. Team USA has a revitalized Taylor Fritz, the ATP Finals finalist, the world #4 is 50-22 on the season, he won two titles and reached the US Open final. A great hard court player, Fritz is joined by world #12 Tommy Paul, who went 42-18 on the season with three ATP titles, two of them on indoor hard courts. Ben Shelton reached a career high ranking in the top 15 in 2024, yet he’s still the clear third best option for singles for Team USA, as they have one of the strongest Davis Cup teams in recent memory. 42-25 on the year, Shelton won a title, and recently reached the Basel final, so the form argument is on his side (along with Fritz). Coach Bob Bryan has a big decision to make for what he will do with singles, as the doubles pair of Austin Krajicek and Rajeev Ram is a top 50 pairing of veterans.
Alex de Minaur will need to dig deep for Australia if they will win this upset, Max Purcell and Matt Ebden are a top 15 doubles pairing and give the Aussies an edge for that match, Lleyton Hewitt will surely nominate “the Demon” for one of the singles matches, De Minaur reached a career high of #6 in 2024, he’s on a four match losing streak and struggled at the ATP Finals but went 48-20 on the season with two ATP titles. His other options are Jordan Thompson and Thanasi Kokkinakis, the 30 year old Thompson is at a career high ranking of #26, 36-25 on the season with an ATP title, Thompson is likely to be the second player nominated. Kokkinakis just won a challenger in Sydney and is trying to clear the top 60 for the first time in his career. He was 14-2 on the ATP Challenger Tour with two titles on the season, but a subpar 13-15 at ATP level, so he likely functions as a backup option if de Minaur is too fatigued to play. Australia has a chance to win just one singles match and advance given they are favored in the doubles.
Germany vs Canada
Germany has a top 10 doubles pairing with Tim Putz/Kevin Krawietz, but lacks firepower in singles, Jan-Lennard Struff leads the lineup, 28-21 on the season with an ATP title, Daniel Altmaier struggled at tour level in 2024 going just 12-22 but he did perform well on the Challenger Tour, Yannick Hanfmann is another player who took a step back in 2024, the 33 year old went 20-21 and failed to achieve any significant breakthroughs. Still, given their prowess in doubles, Germany likely needs just one singles match win to reach the semifinals. This is a different team Germany if Alexander Zverev hadn’t opted out of participation.
Canada has a reduced roster, Denis Shapovalov just won ATP Belgrade as qualifier, 27-24 on the season, the former top 10 Shapovalov has been slowly improving after a knee injury cost him most of the 2023 season. Gabriel Diallo will be the other form player that Canada will trust, Diallo just reached his first ATP final in Almaty recently, and has broken into the top 100, he went 8-7 at Tour level, and was mostly on the ATP Challenger Tour this year. The former University of Kentucky standout reached the third round of the US Open and will be aiming for a top 50 finish next year, he is a dangerous player to face. Alexis Galarneau is a career ATP Challenger Tour player, while Milos Raonic is back, the fragile former Canadian superstar underwent “four surgeries and a torn achilles” going into 2024, and was out another six months with a shoulder injury this season, the former big server is a shell of the top 5 player he was, but he still holds out hope to return to the top 100. 34 year old Vasek Pospisil hasn’t been a factor at tour level in nearly five years, so much of the pressure rests on Shapovalov and Diallo to work their magic if Canada is going to pull off the win without Felix Auger-Aliassime who is out with a back injury.
Netherlands vs Spain
The Netherlands will aim for an upset when they face the hosts Spain in the final quarterfinal. Wesley Koolhof is the world’s #8 doubles player but he lacks a natural partner, the third choice option Jesper De Jong has just two career ATP wins but went 30-15 on the ATP Challenger Tour in 2024, former top 25 player Botic Van De Zandschulp was just 16-25 at ATP Tour level in 2024 and has been below .500 on tour for two consecutive seasons. 31
Tallon Griekspoor, the leader for the Dutch is another former top 25 player, 31-27 in 2o24 was his second best season of his career, but he failed to reach any tournament finals this year and his results felt pedestrian. The Dutch should likely sacrifice one of their lower ranked players to face Spain‘s Carlos Alcaraz in one of the singles matches, hoping to defeat either Pedro Martinez or veteran Roberto Bautista Agut in the second singles match, that, along with a doubles win would give them a massive upset, but that remains unlikely as Marcel Granollers is a top 5 doubles player, and even if less than fit, the retiring Rafael Nadal is a Davis Cup legend.
Martinez is perhaps Spain’s second best singles option, a career high of #39 was achieved in 2024, 18-22 at tour level is pedestrian, but 17-3 on the ATP Challenger Tour is remarkable, and he did make an ATP final this season, although he prefers clay. The 36 year old Bautista Agut is near retirement, he retains a top 50 ranking and went 27-22 across formats in 2024, he recently lifted the ATP Antwerp title on indoor hard courts, so it feels likely that David Ferrer will nominate him to play singles given the surface and his experience. Alcaraz is by far the best singles player in the bottom half of the bracket, 48-12 on the season, he recently won Beijing and won three more titles in 2024 (including two Grand Slams).
Predictions
Quarterfinals
Italy d. Argentina
USA d. Australia
Germany d. Canada
Spain d. Netherlands
The top 10 singles players (Sinner, Fritz, and Alcaraz) should perform well, especially with de Minaur struggling.
Semifinals
Italy d. USA
Spain d. Germany
Sinner will be favored to win his singles match, whether it’s against Fritz or someone else, that means Italy has the chance to either win an upset in the second singles, or win the doubles to return to the final. Spain’s veteran group looks ready for one last run, with Alcaraz leading the way.
Final
Italy d. Spain
don’t discount the leadership of RBA and Nadal to will Spain to a win, but Sinner’s Italy are favored to repeat as Davis Cup champions.
Main Photo Credit: Copyright: Joaquin Corchero-Imago Images
